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    Thread: Subprime Meltdown, the US Housing Market & the Direction of the US Economy in 2009 and 2010

    1. Global Moderator iThread's Avatar
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      01-08-2008 09:16 PM #51
      Come on guys, we made it past two pages without folks calling each other out.

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      01-08-2008 09:26 PM #52
      Quote, originally posted by iThread »
      Come on guys, we made it past two pages without folks calling each other out.


      I am abiding by the rule and keeping my posts objective as possible. It is quite amusing when someone actually complaints that I am not posting enough of my own opinion.

    3. Global Moderator iThread's Avatar
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      01-08-2008 09:28 PM #53
      I'm not singling anyone right now. It was directed at the participants in general.

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      01-08-2008 09:28 PM #54
      Quote, originally posted by Bob Opla »
      How many of those affect you personally?

      Bob, I think you are confused as to what we are discussing here in this thread. Everything I said above is relevant to "the Direction of the US Economy in 2008" I think you should check the thread title before you post reply here.

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      01-08-2008 09:38 PM #55
      Quote, originally posted by jnm1point8t »
      from here posted today, 1/8/07.
      leading economists are also uncertain about what will happen. recession likely? according to this guy, yes. recession defininate, according to this guy, no.

      You just proved my point. That article was dated back in January of 07?
      Mr. Feldstein was actually ahead of his peers. And boy how much has changed in terms of unfolding data since then? Recession has already begun.


      Modified by marzen at 6:40 PM 1-8-2008

    6. 01-08-2008 09:42 PM #56
      Quote, originally posted by marzen »
      I think you should check the thread title before you post reply here.

      not into reading. just posting

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      01-08-2008 10:04 PM #57
      Mr. Feldstein said Recession is "Likely". "Definite" was your word. that is like adding words to the original article. Who does that?
      Here is another article pointing to the fact that we are already in Recession.
      http://seekingalpha.com/articl...-here
      How about BBC article? is that legit enough for you? Truth is, mainstream media is now reporting inevitable recession. Many of us predicted this nearly a year ago.
      http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7176255.stm
      BTW, you should be fine with this articles as they all cite the report from an "ECONOMIST" a chief North American economist at that.
      Quote »
      The U.S. economy has landed in recession, according to an economist at brokerage firm Merrill Lynch.
      David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's chief North American economist, said Friday’s employment report — which showed the U.S. jobless rate jumped to a two-year high of five per cent in December on weaker-than-expected job creation — "strongly suggests that an official recession has arrived."




      Modified by marzen at 7:12 PM 1-8-2008

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      01-08-2008 10:18 PM #58
      Quote, originally posted by Bob Opla »
      not into reading. just posting

      Quote »
      LATEST ECONOMIC NEWS
      US shares slump on work worries
      'Contraction' in US manufacturing
      US prices jump most in two years
      US factory prices at 34-year high
      New US jobs slow in November
      US reduces 2008 growth forecast
      US house prices continue to slide

      source: news.BBC.co.uk

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      01-08-2008 10:45 PM #59
      Quote, originally posted by iThread »
      I'm not singling anyone right now. It was directed at the participants in general.

      I hear ya! [IMG]http://**********************/smile/emthup.gif[/IMG]
      Well, I am scoping through usual websites I visit daily and it is just everywhere. They are finally letting the cat loose.
      Please brace yourself for a rough ride ahead.
      http://money.cnn.com/news/news...2.htm
      http://business.scotsman.com/e...02.jp
      http://www.theaustralian.news.....html

    10. Senior Member jnm2.0t's Avatar
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      01-09-2008 06:06 AM #60
      Quote, originally posted by marzen »
      Mr. Feldstein said Recession is "Likely". "Definite" was your word. that is like adding words to the original article. Who does that?

      i never said 'definite' came from the article.


      Modified by jnm1point8t at 6:30 AM 1-9-2008
      I'm just a regular Joe, with a regular job. I'm your average white, suburbanite slob.

      Quote Originally Posted by Rabbit5GTI
      You have cornered the entire 'I hate Ford Fusions' market around here
      Quote Originally Posted by Turbio!
      Pure electric vehicles will never fully replace fueled (pure ICE or PHEV) vehicles.

    11. Senior Member jnm2.0t's Avatar
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      01-09-2008 07:11 AM #61
      Quote, originally posted by marzen »
      You just proved my point. That article was dated back in January of 07?
      Mr. Feldstein was actually ahead of his peers. And boy how much has changed in terms of unfolding data since then? Recession has already begun.

      actually that was a typo. maybe if you had read the article you would have seen it was written 1/7/08 and updated 1/8/08


      Modified by iThread at 8:39 AM 1-9-2008
      I'm just a regular Joe, with a regular job. I'm your average white, suburbanite slob.

      Quote Originally Posted by Rabbit5GTI
      You have cornered the entire 'I hate Ford Fusions' market around here
      Quote Originally Posted by Turbio!
      Pure electric vehicles will never fully replace fueled (pure ICE or PHEV) vehicles.

    12. Senior Member jnm2.0t's Avatar
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      01-09-2008 07:12 AM #62
      I'm just a regular Joe, with a regular job. I'm your average white, suburbanite slob.

      Quote Originally Posted by Rabbit5GTI
      You have cornered the entire 'I hate Ford Fusions' market around here
      Quote Originally Posted by Turbio!
      Pure electric vehicles will never fully replace fueled (pure ICE or PHEV) vehicles.

    13. Senior Member beng's Avatar
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      01-09-2008 09:35 AM #63
      Goldman has begun saying the "R" word....
      I respect Goldman... based on their subprime moves and the perfomance of their stock through all of this. So when they say it, I think it carries more weight.
      Quote, originally posted by bloomberg »
      BN 08:26 Goldman Says U.S. Economy Slipping Into Recession

      By John Fraher and Sarah Thompson
      Jan. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the U.S.
      economy is probably slipping into recession and forecast the
      Federal Reserve to respond by slashing interest rates.
      Goldman predicts the Fed to cut its benchmark rate to 2.5
      percent by the third quarter, according to an e-mailed strategy
      note. Goldman said in November the Fed would reduce its key rate,
      currently at 4.25 percent, to 3 percent by the middle of 2008.
      The number of Americans signing contracts to buy previously
      owned homes fell more than forecast in November and the jobless
      rate rose to 5 percent in December, the highest in two years,
      reports in the past week showed.
      Payrolls rose by 18,000, the least since August 2003,
      evidence the economic expansion is cooling after a third-quarter
      surge as the housing slump enters its third year.
      Goldman, which last week forecast the Fed would reduce its
      target rate by half a percentage point this month, also said today
      it expects the U.S. economy to expand 0.8 percent over the full
      year.
      Goldman recommended that investors increase their holdings of
      healthcare and consumer-related stocks.

      1 3 4 5 7 8 8 9 10 15 16 23 32 37 42 44 49

      "I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve"

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      01-09-2008 10:24 AM #64
      Quote, originally posted by jnm1point8t »
      page not found x3

      Would you believe it, those were live links until last night. But it appears that they are pulled. LOL
      Here is Reuters article. Source coming from London.
      http://www.reuters.com/article...=true

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      01-09-2008 10:46 AM #65
      Quote, originally posted by jnm1point8t »
      actually that was a typo. maybe if you had read the article you would have seen it was written 1/7/08 and updated 1/8/08.

      Are you arguing the fact that the recession has already begun? or that I failed to recognize your typing mistake? And please stop making up facts and adding words.



      Modified by iThread at 8:40 AM 1-9-2008

    16. Senior Member jnm2.0t's Avatar
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      01-09-2008 10:48 AM #66
      Quote, originally posted by marzen »
      And please stop making up facts and adding words.

      where
      I'm just a regular Joe, with a regular job. I'm your average white, suburbanite slob.

      Quote Originally Posted by Rabbit5GTI
      You have cornered the entire 'I hate Ford Fusions' market around here
      Quote Originally Posted by Turbio!
      Pure electric vehicles will never fully replace fueled (pure ICE or PHEV) vehicles.

    17. Senior Member jnm2.0t's Avatar
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      01-09-2008 10:55 AM #67
      Quote, originally posted by marzen »
      Are you arguing the fact that the recession has already begun? or that I failed to recognize your typing mistake?

      i think it was pretty clear what i was saying.


      Modified by iThread at 8:41 AM 1-9-2008
      I'm just a regular Joe, with a regular job. I'm your average white, suburbanite slob.

      Quote Originally Posted by Rabbit5GTI
      You have cornered the entire 'I hate Ford Fusions' market around here
      Quote Originally Posted by Turbio!
      Pure electric vehicles will never fully replace fueled (pure ICE or PHEV) vehicles.

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      01-09-2008 11:21 AM #68
      Quote, originally posted by beng »
      Goldman has begun saying the "R" word....
      I respect Goldman... based on their subprime moves and the perfomance of their stock through all of this. So when they say it, I think it carries more weight.

      I'd say close to $70mill bonus to CEO last year was clear sign that they were doing just fine compared to firms like Bear Sterns or Merrill Lynch. However, I personally believe the recession started as far back as first quarter of 07. It is now being let out. That's for another day to expand upon.
      I am glad that I have consolidated all the shares. That's for sure.

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      01-09-2008 11:29 AM #69
      So when will the stock market collapse? I already took 75% of my money out of my stock brokerage firm.

    20. Senior Member jnm2.0t's Avatar
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      01-09-2008 12:01 PM #70
      Quote, originally posted by 1Point8TDan »
      So when will the stock market collapse? I already took 75% of my money out of my stock brokerage firm.

      anyone have a crystal ball?
      I'm just a regular Joe, with a regular job. I'm your average white, suburbanite slob.

      Quote Originally Posted by Rabbit5GTI
      You have cornered the entire 'I hate Ford Fusions' market around here
      Quote Originally Posted by Turbio!
      Pure electric vehicles will never fully replace fueled (pure ICE or PHEV) vehicles.

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      01-09-2008 01:04 PM #71
      Quote, originally posted by 1Point8TDan »
      So when will the stock market collapse? I already took 75% of my money out of my stock brokerage firm.


      Moving away from the absolute terms; which tend to inflame the argument, we can look at the cautionary tails unfolding in the market right now.
      We are due for a large correction in the market mainly due to all the recessionary signs. Fed will continue to do what they do best but there is a limit to interest rate campaign. We now have deflating home equities. Even with lower interest rate, fewer people will qualify for loans let alone access to equities in their home. Spending will shrink, easy but expensive debt such as credit card debt will explode even further as earnings will stagnate. Mixing all this with higher unemployment rate, higher energy price, rising inflation, disappearing dividend and etc, we may not have to wonder what will be subsequent economic data and following market reactions will be.
      Smart people already have consolidated their shares or at least moved it far away from financial stocks. From institutional to private investors, action speaks louder than words.E*Trade just unloaded $3 billion in mortgage-backed securities and municipal bonds in order to cut perceived risk. I mean it is too obvious but better late than never right? and BTW, MBIA is cutting dividend by 62% to raise $1 bill in capital. Problem? They do not know where the loss is going to go, they have no idea. No bond insurer is set up to handle this type of loss in the market.
      So when will the market collapse? I am not sure exactly when. But I am preparing for the worse rather than hoping that things will get better somehow.


      Modified by marzen at 10:05 AM 1-9-2008

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      01-09-2008 01:38 PM #72
      Quote, originally posted by jnm1point8t »
      anyone have a crystal ball?


      Look no further than the DJIA in Gold, the crash has been going on for quite a few years.

    23. 01-09-2008 01:53 PM #73
      1st quarter will be down. We're going to get a huge cash injection so the market will rally in terms of the dollar, but don't forget to factor in inflation. Its all about buying power.

    24. Senior Member jnm2.0t's Avatar
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      01-09-2008 02:24 PM #74
      Quote, originally posted by Eloi »

      Look no further than the DJIA in Gold, the crash has been going on for quite a few years.

      i dont think he was asking when the market will tank vs gold.
      I'm just a regular Joe, with a regular job. I'm your average white, suburbanite slob.

      Quote Originally Posted by Rabbit5GTI
      You have cornered the entire 'I hate Ford Fusions' market around here
      Quote Originally Posted by Turbio!
      Pure electric vehicles will never fully replace fueled (pure ICE or PHEV) vehicles.

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      01-09-2008 03:26 PM #75
      Quote, originally posted by Eloi »

      Look no further than the DJIA in Gold, the crash has been going on for quite a few years.

      Highly misleading graph. Gold was at record lows in 2000-2001.

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