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    Thread: Subprime Meltdown, the US Housing Market & the Direction of the US Economy in 2009 and 2010

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      01-10-2008 09:43 PM #101
      Quote, originally posted by dubatwork3 »
      Defend your choice of consolidation all you like, even your definition of consolidation has nothing to do with diversification or tactical re-allocation, in fact it means quite the opposite, both in the dictionary and in every financiers vocabulary.

      You asked what I meant by it. I guess you got me on technicalities.
      Quote, originally posted by dubatwork3 »
      As for your gold buying more than a CD in 12 months, thats just completely incorrect. A CD generally returns 4-6% in the last few years. Gold has done very well over the same period, however look at historic returns. The 50 year return on gold is 2.2%, not looking so good now, average on a CD or TBill is 5.88%. Oh, and another thing is that there is no risk in a TBill or CD to speak of, gold does have risk.

      LOL, that is such a cheap shot. So you want to talk about annualized return of 12 month CD and yet, you will stretch the gold return for 50 years? How about we look at past 8 years? shall we? Since you conveniently forgot to mention the startling fact, I should remind you.
      Had you invested $10,000 in gold bullion in 1999, your initial investment would have grown to $28,007 by 12/17/07 – an amazing 180% percent increase. ROFL! show me a CD or T-bill that would've given me this type return in 9 years! Now, tell me that is not a good investment. NO wonder my father hates so called Financial Advisers. The fact that Gold price is jumping this high is a strong indication of weakening US dollar.
      Quote, originally posted by dubatwork3 »
      People moving money away from financial stocks is relevant to the market as a whole how? It is ONE sector of the market. Also, if you think financial stocks are that bad, I will bet you that they will be one of the best buys come mid summer when MER, GS, C are all selling at a discount when the reality is that most of these banks are not nearly as badly hurt as the common pleb thinks.

      Your prediction has nothing to do with why people are moving their shares. Many individual investors trade in motion of the market rather than based on fundamental data. If you think otherwise then that is because you are trained to think that way. Ask any experts. They will agree with what I just said. Explain the tech bubble.
      Quote, originally posted by dubatwork3 »
      As for MBIA, I could care less why they raised the money, for all I know the CEO needed a new golden urinal. Doesn't matter, because they are not the carrier of the indenture. They are hedged, just like everyone else, and in the indemnity business, that is done through reinsurance.

      Again you show your short knowledge on this matter. I will not bore you with my explanation of the issue. Since you are used to reading dry financial stuff, take a load of this. Come talk to me again once you are done. No, once you understand the magnitude of the issue we have in hand.
      http://seekingalpha.com/articl...cking

      Quote, originally posted by dubatwork3 »
      I have been in financial services now for 7 years, but frankly, this stuff is basic, so it is hardly relevant.
      Resume doom n' gloom.

      In 7 years, I am certain, you never saw anything like this.



      Modified by marzen at 8:40 PM 1-10-2008

    2. Senior Member beng's Avatar
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      01-11-2008 08:30 AM #102
      Quote, originally posted by marzen »
      In 7 years, I am certain, you never saw anything like this.

      All of the arguments aside... this is a good point.
      There hanst been a protracted market debacle like this will be since the 70s... and I think after all is said and done this will be a little worse.
      I've spent pretty much my entire career in a bull market. Being prepared and well positioned for a downturn hasn't been required of me (us).
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      01-11-2008 08:41 AM #103
      Quote, originally posted by beng »
      All of the arguments aside... this is a good point.
      There hanst been a protracted market debacle like this will be since the 70s... and I think after all is said and done this will be a little worse.
      I've spent pretty much my entire career in a bull market. Being prepared and well positioned for a downturn hasn't been required of me (us).

      Very true. I've written here before that the age of most of the posters here has a huge influence with the reactions posted. I'd bet the average age in these M&I threads is less than 30 meaning there has been no first hand professional experience with a downturn.
      I've suffered through a recession and a huge tech bust (where I lost a lot of $$). It kinda forces you to look long-range. I'm going to be realistic about the next year or 2 but not overreact, just like I didn't overreact (ie - overspend) the past 7 years. In 10/15 years, none of us will remember this downcycle.

    4. 01-11-2008 09:59 AM #104
      Quote, originally posted by marzen »
      You asked what I meant by it. I guess you got me on technicalities.

      LOL, that is such a cheap shot. So you want to talk about annualized return of 12 month CD and yet, you will stretch the gold return for 50 years? How about we look at past 8 years? shall we? Since you conveniently forgot to mention the startling fact, I should remind you.
      Had you invested $10,000 in gold bullion in 1999, your initial investment would have grown to $28,007 by 12/17/07 – an amazing 180% percent increase. ROFL! show me a CD or T-bill that would've given me this type return in 9 years! Now, tell me that is not a good investment. NO wonder my father hates so called Financial Advisers. The fact that Gold price is jumping this high is a strong indication of weakening US dollar.

      Your prediction has nothing to do with why people are moving their shares. Many individual investors trade in motion of the market rather than based on fundamental data. If you think otherwise then that is because you are trained to think that way. Ask any experts. They will agree with what I just said. Explain the tech bubble.
      Again you show your short knowledge on this matter. I will not bore you with my explanation of the issue. Since you are used to reading dry financial stuff, take a load of this. Come talk to me again once you are done. No, once you understand the magnitude of the issue we have in hand.
      http://seekingalpha.com/articl...cking


      In 7 years, I am certain, you never saw anything like this.
      Modified by marzen at 8:40 PM 1-10-2008


      Fair is fair, so I did some math for you on your wunderbar Gold as an investment.
      Lets look at the 28 year returns, 28 years simply because that is how far the accurate charts are going right now. In those 28 years gold has had a total return of 30.3% or 1.0821% per year. The 12 month Tbill on the other hand has a total return of 167.97%, or 5.9989% per year. Now keep in mind, I did not compound the Tbill #, but the gold #'s are inherently compounded.
      So, your ultra secure commodity of gold, appears to be one of the worst investments of all time, when compared to what is generally regarded the MOST risk free investment available on the freaking planet. This is also not showing the fact that investing in gold you can LOSE principal... can't do that with a TBill.
      Your gold comparison is something like cherry picking... with a time machine. Assuming you buy any investment at the perfect time, then sell it at the perfect time, of course your returns will be incredible. Oh, and don't say that there were not major issues causing a major run on gold in those 28 years either
      Yes, many investors trade with the market, its called odd-lot trading theory. Something else that is funny... the leading performers in recent market history will show you reams of data saying that going against the day traders is the best way to obtain superior returns.
      Wow, you found a doom and gloom article on the internet. Everything on the internet is 100% accurate too. Think about something for a second. You are trying to convince people that bond insurers are possibly unable to provide indemnification. What I have said repeatedly, repeatedly, is that 1) 4-5 bonds in the history of the united states have defaulted 2) the bond insuring program is incredible layered, robust, hedged, and reinsured around the world.
      Ok, the experience comment is half accurate. However, you keep saying "prolonged downturn". It has been 1500 points, or 11% of the market in 6 months, which it has done many times before. There is no reason, at this point, to assume the cataclysmic events you are predicting.
      However, in those 7 years I did hear alot of doom n' gloomers. How about the tech bubble, oh yea, no one said the markets were failing after 9/11 either.
      Please, if you are so accurate, start buying up shorts on major market indices.

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      01-11-2008 11:35 AM #105
      So, assuming that one can survive a recession relatively intact, how does one position ones self to make a killing on the upside?
      My career started in '87, and I met plenty of people back then who made a lot of money after the previous recession.
      I figure the best thing to do is weather the storm and prepare to collect when it ends.

    6. 01-11-2008 11:38 AM #106
      Honestly, thats the million dollar question. The conservative answer is what you hit already, just sit tight, ride it out and it will come out strong.
      Others will tell you to try and time the market, liquidate before the major drop, sit on defensives for a time until the market is bottomed, buy back in to equities.
      Realistically, I tell people to just stay with diversified accounts, but the allocations are changing all the time.
      For instance, right now most people are putting alot more of a % into internationals, certain funds/areas/industries, but more so than was the norm in the past.
      Past that, it depends on the individual.

    7. Senior Member beng's Avatar
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      01-11-2008 11:48 AM #107
      Quote, originally posted by dubatwork2 »
      Honestly, thats the million dollar question. The conservative answer is what you hit already, just sit tight, ride it out and it will come out strong.
      Others will tell you to try and time the market, liquidate before the major drop, sit on defensives for a time until the market is bottomed, buy back in to equities.

      Yes, the fundamental argument in finance. Does market timing work? Is it possible?
      I'm personally in the camp of shifting allocations (moving money out of consumer discretion for instance) and maybe carrying more cash then you would usually. The more you buy on the downside and the bottom, the more you can make when the markets recover (dollar cost averaging). The strategy of a rational long term investor.
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    8. 01-11-2008 11:50 AM #108
      Quote, originally posted by beng »
      Yes, the fundamental argument in finance. Does market timing work? Is it possible?
      I'm personally in the camp of shifting allocations (moving money out of consumer discretion for instance) and maybe carrying more cash then you would usually. The more you buy on the downside and the bottom, the more you can make when the markets recover (dollar cost averaging). The strategy of a rational long term investor.

      I agree. Thats where professionals come in and being able to differentiate where the market is going sector wise. Much safer to allocate within the market, then out and back in, which is what I tend to think of as timing, that is going from stocks to cash back to stocks.

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      01-11-2008 11:59 AM #109
      having your 'house in order' before the recession is the best way to come out strong.
      - have manageable debt to income ratios
      - have a sound portfolio ahead of time
      - have enough free cash flow that you can still dollar cost average into your 401(k), Roth, NQ Brokerage account, or whatever you use all along the way
      - have enough cash on hand so that if some opportunity really presents itself you can move on it
      I'm just a regular Joe, with a regular job. I'm your average white, suburbanite slob.

      Quote Originally Posted by Rabbit5GTI
      You have cornered the entire 'I hate Ford Fusions' market around here
      Quote Originally Posted by Turbio!
      Pure electric vehicles will never fully replace fueled (pure ICE or PHEV) vehicles.

    10. 01-11-2008 01:06 PM #110
      Quote, originally posted by jnm1point8t »
      having your 'house in order' before the recession is the best way to come out strong.
      - have manageable debt to income ratios
      - have a sound portfolio ahead of time
      - have enough free cash flow that you can still dollar cost average into your 401(k), Roth, NQ Brokerage account, or whatever you use all along the way
      - have enough cash on hand so that if some opportunity really presents itself you can move on it

      [IMG]http://**********************/smile/emthup.gif[/IMG]
      For people that prepared themselves it can be a great opportunity. Personally I like real estate. Rates are still low, prices down and rents are going up (how long who knows). But there are buying opportunities out there that make financial sense. It's always a numbers game.

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      01-11-2008 01:50 PM #111
      Quote, originally posted by jnm1point8t »
      having your 'house in order' before the recession is the best way to come out strong.
      - have manageable debt to income ratios
      - have a sound portfolio ahead of time
      - have enough free cash flow that you can still dollar cost average into your 401(k), Roth, NQ Brokerage account, or whatever you use all along the way
      - have enough cash on hand so that if some opportunity really presents itself you can move on it

      Don't forget my #1 "house-in-order" task:
      - have a recession-proof job (or be very marketable should you become unemployed)

    12. Member jnm2.0t's Avatar
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      01-11-2008 01:52 PM #112
      Quote, originally posted by tbvvw »
      Don't forget my #1 "house-in-order" task:
      - have a recession-proof job (or be very marketable should you become unemployed)

      yes, very true... i suppose nothing is guaranteed but i feel pretty safe myself.
      I'm just a regular Joe, with a regular job. I'm your average white, suburbanite slob.

      Quote Originally Posted by Rabbit5GTI
      You have cornered the entire 'I hate Ford Fusions' market around here
      Quote Originally Posted by Turbio!
      Pure electric vehicles will never fully replace fueled (pure ICE or PHEV) vehicles.

    13. Senior Member beng's Avatar
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      01-11-2008 02:25 PM #113
      Quote, originally posted by ImRollin »
      [IMG]http://**********************/smile/emthup.gif[/IMG]
      For people that prepared themselves it can be a great opportunity. Personally I like real estate. Rates are still low, prices down and rents are going up (how long who knows). But there are buying opportunities out there that make financial sense. It's always a numbers game.

      I think real estate is going to be a fantastic play by mid/late 2008. If you have sufficient liquidity...because the only barrier to entry will be the strict lending standards.
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    14. Member jnm2.0t's Avatar
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      01-11-2008 02:31 PM #114
      Quote, originally posted by beng »
      I think real estate is going to be a fantastic play by mid/late 2008. If you have sufficient liquidity...because the only barrier to entry will be the strict lending standards.

      whereby people who have their ish together ahead of time make out. survival of the fittest.
      I'm just a regular Joe, with a regular job. I'm your average white, suburbanite slob.

      Quote Originally Posted by Rabbit5GTI
      You have cornered the entire 'I hate Ford Fusions' market around here
      Quote Originally Posted by Turbio!
      Pure electric vehicles will never fully replace fueled (pure ICE or PHEV) vehicles.

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      01-11-2008 08:33 PM #115
      you can preach all you want about alternate safe investments. I will stick to my golds!
      And I am not complaining!
      http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/1...11111
      I guess we should agree to disagree and move on! [IMG]http://**********************/smile/emthup.gif[/IMG]


      Modified by marzen at 5:44 PM 1-11-2008

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      01-11-2008 10:05 PM #116
      Why no mention of the Countrywide purchase by BoA? I'm really worried now the M&I Forum is falling asleep at the wheel!

    17. 01-11-2008 10:41 PM #117
      Quote, originally posted by marzen »
      you can preach all you want about alternate safe investments. I will stick to my golds!
      And I am not complaining!
      http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/1...11111
      I guess we should agree to disagree and move on! [IMG]http://**********************/smile/emthup.gif[/IMG]

      Modified by marzen at 5:44 PM 1-11-2008

      I am sorry, but w.t.f. cares. That number is IRRELEVANT. I dont care if gold is at 9million an ounce. All that matters in investing is the two things... risk and return. Gold has a moderate amount of risk and historically almost no return.
      Like my last numbers demonstrated, 28 year return on gold ~1% a year. Wowsers, thats some good work.

    18. 01-11-2008 10:43 PM #118
      Quote, originally posted by haunted reality »
      Why no mention of the Countrywide purchase by BoA? I'm really worried now the M&I Forum is falling asleep at the wheel!

      Whats the question or the news? There was a thread on it earlier, and it hit it pretty dead on. BoA is trying, and has accomplished, buying themselves into the mortgage production business. They had some of the backend business, but they decided to buy the front end business in countrywide for pennies on the dollar. Why? They know countrywide is going to be a huge headache for a few years, but they think it is still a good deal. I am not an expert on that particular industry, but I am pretty sure BoA has quite a few investment banks in the analysis so I will defer to them.
      Oh yea, and BoA is *somewhat* interested in the 500million in tax breaks they will get.

    19. 01-11-2008 11:38 PM #119
      Quote, originally posted by haunted reality »
      Why no mention of the Countrywide purchase by BoA? I'm really worried now the M&I Forum is falling asleep at the wheel!

      There is a whole thread dedicated to CW

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      01-12-2008 06:09 AM #120
      Quote, originally posted by ImRollin »
      There is a whole thread dedicated to CW

      http://forums.vwvortex.com/zerothread?id=3619936
      I'm just a regular Joe, with a regular job. I'm your average white, suburbanite slob.

      Quote Originally Posted by Rabbit5GTI
      You have cornered the entire 'I hate Ford Fusions' market around here
      Quote Originally Posted by Turbio!
      Pure electric vehicles will never fully replace fueled (pure ICE or PHEV) vehicles.

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      01-12-2008 08:36 AM #121
      Quote, originally posted by jnm1point8t »
      http://forums.vwvortex.com/zerothread?id=3619936

      Ah thanks, I didn't read that one because I read it before and it was dealing with using CW Bank. I guess it's been updated now with the buyout information.

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      01-12-2008 09:19 AM #122
      So, market dropped to near 280 then settled at 246. In one day. Especially at the beginning of the year. Reasons are obvious as cited throughout major financial news. This is kind of correction I was referring to. The market will bounce back up after the rate cut, but that still doesn't address the fundamental issues.

    23. 01-12-2008 09:57 AM #123
      Quote, originally posted by marzen »
      So, market dropped to near 280 then settled at 246. In one day. Especially at the beginning of the year. Reasons are obvious as cited throughout major financial news. This is kind of correction I was referring to. The market will bounce back up after the rate cut, but that still doesn't address the fundamental issues.

      There are alot of issues in the market right now, but I think it is at the bottom around 12.5k, seems to have a floor support there. The 50 bip rate cut will help, but its not the savior, because it doesn't correct the fundamentals. Also, the rate cut will happen around same time the 4Q results are published by alot of financials, so they may wash out.

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      01-13-2008 11:22 AM #124
      Article in the Boston Golbe this morning addresses the issue of government intervention in the housing market. Talks about how it is only helping to keep those just barely on the outskirts of being able to afford a house from getting into one as the prices stay somewhat artifically elevated and people aren't foreclosed on. Title of the article is 'Whose side are they on?'
      I'm just a regular Joe, with a regular job. I'm your average white, suburbanite slob.

      Quote Originally Posted by Rabbit5GTI
      You have cornered the entire 'I hate Ford Fusions' market around here
      Quote Originally Posted by Turbio!
      Pure electric vehicles will never fully replace fueled (pure ICE or PHEV) vehicles.

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      01-13-2008 06:31 PM #125
      Quote, originally posted by The Boston Globe »
      Whose side are they on?
      Government efforts to stem foreclosures mean fewer chances for people priced out of the market
      By Binyamin Appelbaum, Globe Staff | January 13, 2008
      Some people are cheering for a plunge in local housing prices: Those who watched the market rocket skyward and waited patiently for the return trip, resisting the temptation to spend more than they could afford.
      Linda Werbner and Mark Muzeroll sat out the boom in a small Lynn condominium. Now they're eyeing the housing market "longingly but cautiously," Linda said, hoping for "a slew of homes to be had for a song."
      They'd like to buy a small Colonial where Mark, a piano teacher, can play a partita at 2 a.m.
      In Boston and other hyper-expensive markets, the surge in foreclosures and the resulting drop in prices isn't bad for everyone. Government efforts to limit foreclosures have the effect of favoring people who want to stay in their homes over the people who want to move in next.
      Tom Callahan, executive director of the Massachusetts Affordable Housing Alliance, said he's torn by concern for homeowners, but "our hope for home buyers is that the market softens somewhat.
      "When a market has been as hot as it's been for the last while, your hope is for prices to come down," he said.
      Prices in the Boston area more than doubled between 1995 and 2005, even adjusting for inflation. Lax lending standards played a big part. Sellers raised prices, and buyers easily borrowed the wanted money.
      By 2005, the area's median housing price was $492,000. Under federal standards, such a home was affordable to families making at least $135,000 a year. The area's median family income: $82,600.
      Many families chose to stretch, agreeing to monthly mortgage payments that consumed a larger share of income than the recommended 28 percent - often a much larger share. Many of them are now are facing foreclosure.
      Werbner and Muzeroll chose not to stretch. Werbner is a social worker. Muzeroll teaches piano. In 2003, the couple paid $155,000 for a 750-square-foot condo, with comfortable monthly payments. They watched the housing boom lift Lynn. Abandoned industrial buildings became desirable residential lofts. Prices went up, up, and away. New residents came flooding in. Then they watched the market start to collapse. Desirable residential lofts became difficult to sell. Prices started plunging. Residents started leaving.
      They began dreaming about buying a sin gle-family home this spring.
      The opportunity is emotionally complicated for Werbner. If prices keep falling, their chances will improve. But prices are going down because other people are losing homes to foreclosure.
      The mortgage companies resell those homes at discounts of 20 percent and more, driving down the prices of other similar properties.
      "I feel guilty when I'm going through one of these websites and it says bank-owned property," Werbner said. "I know that there's a really sad story attached to that. It's like finding a wedding ring on the sidewalk."
      It is not clear how many people benefit from the falling prices.
      A Boston home purchased for a dollar in 1997, when the boom began, was worth $2.42 at the peak in 2005. As of October, it was worth $2.26. Forecasting firm Global Insight predicts it will still be worth about $2 when the market hits bottom in 2009. That will remain beyond the reach of many renters, or people hoping for a larger home.
      Furthermore, falling housing prices have broader economic consequences. Homeowners spend less, so companies make less, so workers earn less. For those workers, less expensive homes aren't necessarily more affordable. The entire economy is moving downward. As a result, the renters aren't getting closer to homeownership.
      And there's the issue of location. Falling prices don't change homes, but they do change neighborhoods. Some houses sit empty, while others are rented. People leave and communities dissolve. A home that sold for $300,000 may now be on the market for $200,000, but it could be worth even less if the neighborhood around it is collapsing.
      Still, Callahan said attendance has been increasing at Massachusetts Affordable Housing Alliance classes for first-time buyers.
      "I do think there's some renewed interest from people who may have been discouraged in the past," he said.
      It's also not clear that the government can prevent prices from falling, even if it wanted to. A number of modest efforts are underway to help people keep their homes.
      Lending companies will forgo scheduled increases in monthly payments on some loans. In other cases, they will reduce the payment. But there is no plan in place to forestall the majority of impending foreclosures.
      Even if there was, prices would keep declining. Tightened lending standards have thinned the ranks of potential buyers, or limited how much they can spend. The number of homes already on the market is enough to satisfy almost a year of demand at the current level. A normal backlog is about six months.
      Officials are talking about ways to reduce supply and increase demand: Cut interest rates to make loans cheaper; return money to taxpayers to stimulate spending; give money to borrowers who can't afford loans; and reduce monthly payments for more borrowers to help them keep their homes.
      George Marshall, a Boston renter who wants to buy a home in the suburbs, doesn't favor any of those strategies. He has money saved for a down payment, but he's waiting for prices to drop a little more.
      Marshall said he wants people to understand "how frustrating it is for people who are looking to buy a home to see their governor using their tax dollars against them."
      Leave the market alone, Marshall said, so he can buy a home.

      I don't know how people budget in places for NYC or Boston. It's hard to find a place that is respectable, which will fit the 1/3 monthly net income budgeting standard. I'm pretty sure most of these responsible homeowners are forking up to 1/2 just so they can live in a decent spot, and not a dump. That alone makes me sick, because it totally puts a leash on your savings and investment abilities.
      Quote Originally Posted by Turbiodiesel!
      It really is the perfect, no excuses all-rounder for the rich guy who's accustomed to having it all - the Hybrid version especially. It's like an F-150 Raptor banged an M5 in the men's room of a biker bar. Nobody really wanted the results, but damn - what a set of genes.

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