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    Thread: Facebook IPO next week...

    1. 05-08-2012 02:40 AM #51
      On no planet can you justify their 100B valuation based on their financials. Many people think facebook is a start up company with start up growth potential; its not a start-up growth company, its almost a decade old and its historical growth is pretty unspectacular in and of itself, nevermind its more current growth (or lack thereof). IPOs and specifically tech IPOs are cash-out liquidity events for early investors, not capital raises to fund future growth.

      The other argument is "once they figure out how to monetize blah blah." They figured out how to monetize it a long time ago, that's why they have revenue and earnings in the first place. I do not understand what operational catalyst people are expecting where they're going to all of a sudden be able to produce massive sums of cash when they've been "monetizing" their use base for 5 years and have nearly flat earnings growth over the past year. Its not like they go public and all of a sudden all these giant companies are going to be like "wait wait wait wait, you guys have access to 900M people?! Why haven't we heard of this company before, we'll pay you a ton for advertising!"
      Last edited by saintforlife; 05-08-2012 at 02:43 AM.

    2. Member rich!'s Avatar
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      05-10-2012 07:01 AM #52
      lottery time http://eresearch.fidelity.com/eresea...calendar.jhtml I'm thinking this one will fall under the 500k asset minimum...
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      05-11-2012 05:10 PM #53
      It's funny that most of the 99% or 23% are on FB and soon many FB employees will be joining the 1% thanks to the occupy movement folks who are probably posting on FB right now.

    4. 05-12-2012 05:29 PM #54
      Quote Originally Posted by Vision33r View Post
      It's funny that most of the 99% or 23% are on FB and soon many FB employees will be joining the 1% thanks to the occupy movement folks who are probably posting on FB right now.
      Ain't that the truth.

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      05-16-2012 03:21 PM #55
      The more I read and hear about FB valuations the more I think the company's future is murky.

      This week they've almost doubled the IPO price range and WSJ surveys that most of the companies that own private shares are looking to sell atleast 20% of their holdings on the 1st day. That's a classic case of pump and dump.

    6. Member Issam Abed's Avatar
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      05-17-2012 03:00 AM #56
      Quote Originally Posted by a_riot View Post
      They bought Instagram for a billion dollars, so they can't be very clever businesspeople.
      Are you on Forbe's top 100 people?
      That being said $200M != $1B...
      What do people go to facebook for?

      1. Photos (pictures of your ex , friends , the usual stalker, etc
      2. relationship status


      Nothing else really matters to the average person. Buying Instagram was a necessary business move (regardless of how over valued the stock was).
      Quote Originally Posted by Vision33r View Post
      That's a classic case of pump and dump.
      What part exactly? The part where they dump 20% their initial investment @ 200% profit and then use the earnings to pick up double the amount of shares when the panic arises?
      Sounds like a classic case of making your money work for you considering most of them got in @ an average of $20/share when the private block sales were going through in January.

      If you want a good read (and you understand anything about stocks/stockmarket) then go to page 30 , read and crunch your own #'s
      http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/da...287954ds1a.htm

      This stock will pop....how much it will pop depends on how many shares become available on that day. I have yet to see a stock classified as a "High technology stock" fall below its IPO on its first trading day and if it does FB will yet again become a first.
      If FB opens @ $X , expect people to be putting in buying blocks @ $X + Y to ensure their blocks get filled.

      Do I think FB is a long term investment? Depends what you call long term.
      Do I own or run FB? NO
      Do I know what FB's future holds? NO
      Does anyone here? NO

      ....That is my take on the situation. We can speculate all we want about what we *think* the company's value is but in reality no one knows where this is going , not even the founders.

      One thing we do know is the FB Monster is uncontrollable. FB archives can tell you more about yourself than you would like to know ....food for thought. Something Google , Linkedin , Apple and all the other popstars could never.

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      05-18-2012 11:26 AM #57
      What you're preaching for is classic bubble investing and not investing on fundamentals. We haven't seen the bubble pop in this tech bubble rally, yet. There is so much cheap money out today that Wall street doesn't care about fundamentals. They just want to keep cooking these birds like Groupon and FB until it's cooked.

      If you look at the stocks restriction on IPO day, you can't buy unless you have a ton of money wired and you can't trade it after you bought it. While the FB employees will be busy selling and exiting their positions.

      I believe FB reached it's peak before it went IPO, that's the problem. Even Google was pressured by Wallstreet to extend beyond just search for revenue. FB will be too, the problem is I don't think Zuckerberg is that good. I think he's over-rated. I have yet to see him change FB's company direction. Eventually the social media ad revenue will go south and they will need to change the site to force feed ads and choice other revenue streams. That's why people will leave in droves, because FB is not Google, they don't have other revenue streams in case their main audience bails.

      I agree with you that FB will pop, there's money to be made but the outlook on the long term of the company is not so good.

    8. Senior Member beng's Avatar
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      05-18-2012 11:29 AM #58
      Quote Originally Posted by Vision33r View Post
      Let's take a look at their business, at it's core it is essentially a marketing company. They are selling advertising space and customer contact info.
      Facebook is the largest data store of personal information & preferences that has ever existed in the public space.

      Its more of a marketing research data mine than it is a marketing firm. The value of selling ad space is dwarfed by the value of understanding, modeling and pedicting user behavior. I don't think anyone is able to fully quantify the value of that information.
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      "I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve"

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      05-18-2012 11:45 AM #59
      Quote Originally Posted by Vision33r View Post
      While the FB employees will be busy selling and exiting their positions.
      probably depends on their vesting schedule and limitations of selling from the IPO date.
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      05-18-2012 05:03 PM #60
      Quote Originally Posted by beng View Post
      Facebook is the largest data store of personal information & preferences that has ever existed in the public space.

      Its more of a marketing research data mine than it is a marketing firm. The value of selling ad space is dwarfed by the value of understanding, modeling and pedicting user behavior. I don't think anyone is able to fully quantify the value of that information.
      This is true, like most social sites even forums such as here it's not so much that Ad space generate the most relevant click-thrus, it's the network marketing potential. I honestly have not ever clicked on an ad off this site or any other site. The only time I ever clicked on an ad is when I'm searching for something and an ad seem to be what I'm looking for.

      People go on FB just to browse, respond, and interact with their buddies. It's not a great place to serve up targeted ads. That's my imo and I have worked for an ad agency and dotcom site that specialize in web traffic.

      I'm not saying FB is terrible, I think the valuations are way too high unless FB can grow beyond just social media.

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      05-19-2012 04:16 AM #61
      Quote Originally Posted by Vision33r View Post
      I agree with you that FB will pop, there's money to be made but the outlook on the long term of the company is not so good.
      Averaged @ 38.90 today for 250 shares and was out by 41.94 (still keeping 20 shares long term) so yes there was money to be made but I find it annoying when people say "Facebook has no future".
      I am no fortune teller but I know a guy like Zuckerberg hates to lose. Anything can happen when $$ (alot of it) is involved.

    12. Senior Member beng's Avatar
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      05-21-2012 11:45 AM #62
      Down 12% right now... trading around 33.5
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      "I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve"

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      05-21-2012 01:12 PM #63
      Quote Originally Posted by beng View Post
      Down 12% right now... trading around 33.5
      Zuck loses or makes about $500m for every dollar in value change.

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      05-21-2012 01:57 PM #64
      Mind boggling

      Think he got a pre-nup by the way??
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      "I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve"

    15. 05-21-2012 03:34 PM #65
      facebook = big brother

      the gov't, employers, insurers, schools, and anyone else that wants info about somebody are all over it............thus garentees it's survival in any regard

      they will tap it into the 'data research center ' in utah and it will be a field day of spying on the citizens....

      the zuck probably gets a call daily from the NSA, FBI, CIA, DHS, with offers of golf, vacations, etc.

      and the boys over at apple get the same.........as do microsoft....

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      05-21-2012 03:52 PM #66
      Quote Originally Posted by Vision33r View Post
      Let's take a look at their business, at it's core it is essentially a marketing company. They are selling advertising space and customer contact info.

      ...

      It's a classic ponzi.
      No other marketing company on the planet holds the amount of user information or up to the moment demographic data.

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      05-21-2012 05:16 PM #67
      Quote Originally Posted by beng View Post
      Mind boggling

      Think he got a pre-nup by the way??
      I don't think it really matter at that point.
      I'm just a regular Joe, with a regular job. I'm your average white, suburbanite slob.

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      Quote Originally Posted by Turbio!
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      05-22-2012 12:18 PM #68
      Where are we going and why am I in this handbasket?

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      05-22-2012 12:26 PM #69
      im waiting on options trades to start on the 29th....

    20. Senior Member beng's Avatar
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      05-22-2012 12:54 PM #70
      Quote Originally Posted by ValveCoverGasket View Post
      im waiting on options trades to start on the 29th....
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      "I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve"

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      05-22-2012 12:55 PM #71
      the real good action may already be over by that point... but at least we'll have the next quarterly to look forward to then

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      05-22-2012 01:09 PM #72
      From Yahoo Finance:

      "And now comes some news about the Facebook (FB) IPO that buyers deserve to be outraged about.

      Reuters' Alistair Barr is reporting that Facebook's lead underwriters, Morgan Stanley (MS), JP Morgan (JPM), and Goldman Sachs (GS) all cut their earnings forecasts for the company in the middle of the IPO roadshow.

      This by itself is highly unusual (I've never seen it during 20 years in and around the tech IPO business).

      But, just as important, news of the estimate cut was passed on only to a handful of big investor clients, not everyone else who was considering an investment in Facebook.

      This is a huge problem, for one big reason:

      Selective dissemination. Earnings forecasts are material information, especially when they are prepared by analysts who have had privileged access to company management. As lead underwriters on the IPO, these analysts would have had much better information about the company than anyone else. So the fact that these analysts suddenly all cut their earnings forecasts at the same time, during the roadshow, and then this information was not passed on to the broader public, is a huge problem. "


      http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily...3Rpb25z;_ylv=3

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      05-22-2012 01:32 PM #73
      On pace to be one of the worst large IPOs.

      http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2012/05/2.../?mod=yahoo_hs

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      05-22-2012 03:12 PM #74
      Wow. Not good for FB.

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      05-22-2012 09:48 PM #75
      Was that retribution for Facebook forcing the underwriters to take a smaller cut?
      Quote Originally Posted by apizzaparty View Post
      never thought once to use my lefty for the brake. sorry in my opinion it is dumb.

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