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    Thread: Facebook IPO next week...

    1. 02-02-2012 03:45 AM #26
      Quote Originally Posted by robr2 View Post
      No. Paypal is owned by eBay.

      According to wiki, these folks have shares of Facebook:

      Mark Zuckerberg: 24%
      Accel Partners: 10%
      Digital Sky Technologies: 10%,
      Dustin Moskovitz: 6%
      Eduardo Saverin: 5%
      Sean Parker: 4%
      Peter Thiel: 3%
      Greylock Partners and Meritech Capital Partners: between 1 to 2% each
      Microsoft: 1.3%
      Li Ka-shing: 0.75%
      Interpublic Group: less than 0.5%
      A small group of current and former employees and celebrities own less than 1% each
      The remaining 30% or so are owned by employees, an undisclosed number of celebrities, and outside investors.
      sorry, I got mixed up, former paypal CEO Peter Thiel, owns nearly 45 million shares.

      I bet that Class B shares will start around the 25-35$ mark, and if they do, I totally see them hit 50$-60$, just because of the hype.

      and you know what's sad, that there is going to be a HUGE, and I mean HUGE bandwagon effect with this. People who are professionals, and total beginners will jump in. It will be all over the news, and everyone will want a piece of the pie, thinking it will be the next big easy money maker. Its' going to be a frenzy.

      can someone tell me, when was the last time/company this big, this influential that went IPO.
      Last edited by AIRider; 02-02-2012 at 03:51 AM.

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      02-02-2012 11:11 AM #27
      There will be a lot of departures at Facebook once they lift the restrictions on trading their own shares.

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      02-02-2012 11:17 AM #28
      Quote Originally Posted by Harv View Post
      Good point, but right now Google has so much more than Facebook. You could argue that Googles IPO gave them the resources (cash) to bring in the world best engineers and other employees to come up with Google Maps/Earth, YouTube, Cell Phones, etc..


      But I'm still sticking to the fact that in the short-term, Facebook will be way overvalued.
      That's the problem with Google, they are doing too many things and none of which they do well at.

      Google+, won't ever replace Facebook. If Facebook dies out, the entire category will be dead.

      Youtube, burning more cash than raking in. Google's still trying to figure out how to make money from it.

      Google maps, it's a good mapping utility. Bing's Maps are actually quite good.

      Android, may have the lead on marketshare because it's Free! But it's not bringing Google as much money which lead to investors dumping the stock after earnings report.

      Microsoft actually projected to make more money per device than Google, brings in health profits quarterly but gets no attention by investors.

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      02-02-2012 12:50 PM #29
      Quote Originally Posted by AZGolf View Post
      It is explained in this article. Basically they are required to go public by law because the company has too many investors to remain private. If they could restrict the total number of owners then the company could remain private, otherwise they are better off just going public.
      Just to clarify, they aren't required to take the company public. They just have to publicly disclose certain things now that they have in excess of 500 shareholders.

      At that point though, you might as well go public, because you've lost one of the key advantages of being a private company.

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      02-06-2012 05:08 PM #30
      Quote Originally Posted by Matt15 View Post
      noob question:
      why would a $100bn company want/need to go public?
      b/c until it goes public, it's not a $100B company.

    6. Senior Member jnm2.0t's Avatar
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      02-06-2012 05:34 PM #31
      Quote Originally Posted by Diamond Dave View Post
      b/c until it goes public, it's not a $100B company.
      A $100B company is a $100B company, private or public.
      I'm just a regular Joe, with a regular job. I'm your average white, suburbanite slob.

      Quote Originally Posted by Rabbit5GTI
      You have cornered the entire 'I hate Ford Fusions' market around here
      Quote Originally Posted by Turbio!
      Pure electric vehicles will never fully replace fueled (pure ICE or PHEV) vehicles.

    7. 02-07-2012 01:35 AM #32
      if you guys have timeline, did you notice new sponsored ads in your pictures?

    8. Senior Member jnm2.0t's Avatar
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      02-07-2012 12:40 PM #33
      Quote Originally Posted by AIRider View Post
      if you guys have timeline, did you notice new sponsored ads in your pictures?
      Don't have it but it doesn't surprise me.
      I'm just a regular Joe, with a regular job. I'm your average white, suburbanite slob.

      Quote Originally Posted by Rabbit5GTI
      You have cornered the entire 'I hate Ford Fusions' market around here
      Quote Originally Posted by Turbio!
      Pure electric vehicles will never fully replace fueled (pure ICE or PHEV) vehicles.

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      02-07-2012 01:22 PM #34
      Quote Originally Posted by jnm2.0t View Post
      A $100B company is a $100B company, private or public.
      Forecasted to be a $100B company prior to IPO isn't the same as being a $100B company. But if you know differently about how this works, please feel free to elaborate.

    10. Senior Member jnm2.0t's Avatar
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      02-07-2012 02:53 PM #35
      Quote Originally Posted by Diamond Dave View Post
      Forecasted to be a $100B company prior to IPO isn't the same as being a $100B company. But if you know differently about how this works, please feel free to elaborate.
      Going public just changes the pool of potential owners.
      I'm just a regular Joe, with a regular job. I'm your average white, suburbanite slob.

      Quote Originally Posted by Rabbit5GTI
      You have cornered the entire 'I hate Ford Fusions' market around here
      Quote Originally Posted by Turbio!
      Pure electric vehicles will never fully replace fueled (pure ICE or PHEV) vehicles.

    11. Junior Member Exhaust Muncher's Avatar
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      02-08-2012 01:47 PM #36
      Quote Originally Posted by Harv View Post


      Individual investing? By the time we can get it I think it will be very overvalued.
      What befuddles me is that I am interested in "What's Next." Facebook is "What's Now."

      About $5 billion worth of shares will be sold, though the deal values the entire enterprise at between $75 billion and $100 billion. Only a little more than two dozen U.S. companies have a market cap that size. Remember, all stock trades are ultimately a matter of valuation, and valuation is always a matter of perspective.

      Perspective almost always needs to be checked, and that is certainly so with the level of hype that is surrounding this IPO.

      To be worth $100 billion in market cap, at 19.6 times earnings, Facebook needs to have $5.1 billion in earnings. At its current net earnings margin of 26.9%, that implies top-line revenue of $19.3 billion, which is 421.3% above 2011 levels. This means Facebook has to double revenue and earnings in 2012 (Not Likely), then double it again in 2013 (Again, Not Likely), then start to have 30% annual growth. If it does that -- which would be an incredible business feat -- it would be worth the top end of its IPO price range.

      However, FB trend is clear, its growth is waning. Facebook's business generates revenue of $3.7 billion and nets 26.9%, or $1 billion. The company grew 77.8% from 2007 to 2008. In the next three years, it grew 185%, 154% and 89%, respectively.

      Unless I see a method to insure future growth and value, ultimately I dont see FB as a viable long term solution for my portfolio.

    12. 02-09-2012 09:52 AM #37
      Quote Originally Posted by exhaust muncher
      What befuddles me is that I am interested in "What's Next." Facebook is "What's Now."

      About $5 billion worth of shares will be sold, though the deal values the entire enterprise at between $75 billion and $100 billion. Only a little more than two dozen U.S. companies have a market cap that size. Remember, all stock trades are ultimately a matter of valuation, and valuation is always a matter of perspective.

      Perspective almost always needs to be checked, and that is certainly so with the level of hype that is surrounding this IPO.

      To be worth $100 billion in market cap, at 19.6 times earnings, Facebook needs to have $5.1 billion in earnings. At its current net earnings margin of 26.9%, that implies top-line revenue of $19.3 billion, which is 421.3% above 2011 levels. This means Facebook has to double revenue and earnings in 2012 (Not Likely), then double it again in 2013 (Again, Not Likely), then start to have 30% annual growth. If it does that -- which would be an incredible business feat -- it would be worth the top end of its IPO price range.

      However, FB trend is clear, its growth is waning. Facebook's business generates revenue of $3.7 billion and nets 26.9%, or $1 billion. The company grew 77.8% from 2007 to 2008. In the next three years, it grew 185%, 154% and 89%, respectively.

      Unless I see a method to insure future growth and value, ultimately I dont see FB as a viable long term solution for my portfolio.
      Exactly. The projected enterprise value is astonishing given the estimated financial performance currently. I believe there's more hype around the valuation than the IPO itself. This ship will sink itself. Adios facebook

    13. Junior Member Exhaust Muncher's Avatar
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      02-09-2012 07:44 PM #38
      Quote Originally Posted by remedyzrider View Post
      This ship will sink itself. Adios facebook
      Not so sure if "The ship will sink." I do believe this stock could have potential. However, I havent been provided with sufficient information to confirm that opinion, therefore, until they provide a conceptualization regarding the continuation of their growth. I dont find it appealing, personally, with how their numbers have been substantially declining.

    14. 02-15-2012 03:00 PM #39
      Quote Originally Posted by Exhaust Muncher
      Not so sure if "The ship will sink." I do believe this stock could have potential. However, I havent been provided with sufficient information to confirm that opinion, therefore, until they provide a conceptualization regarding the continuation of their growth. I dont find it appealing, personally, with how their numbers have been substantially declining.
      I don't think FB will disappear entirely but I certainly don't think they're anywhere near a $100b company unless they completely change their revenue streams. I feel for FB to generate the revenue investors and the market will demand FB will need to seek actions that will increase the "drop-out" rate (i.e. charging a membership, selling personal info, increased spamming). Their multiples are huge, especially when compared to peers with market caps greater than $100b. For them to fulfill the expectations of these multiples they'll need to go routes counter productive to what their inventory desires. All social media is struggling with this and has been for years. FB no longer has the time to figure this out with the market pressures they're about to face as a public company.

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      02-20-2012 09:47 PM #40
      FB is a company that should've go public many years ago. They've only been profitable the last 2 years when institutional investors started pumping in money. The problem with FB is they've already conquered the market, I don't think there's more room for growth.

      Everyone has a FB account and they don't have any new products or new stream of revenue other than advertising.

      FB music, movies, stores? I think FB wants to become more than Google but they have to careful. One wrong move, people could leave in droves like Netflix.

      This is a $6bn company in my book.

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      02-24-2012 02:07 AM #41
      Quote Originally Posted by Vision33r View Post

      Everyone has a FB account and they don't have any new products or new stream of revenue other than advertising.
      This is the very reason why I dont count FB as a dump. Investors will become the primary focus to achieve and maintain satisfied investors. My question, again, is how does FB plan to innovate from here?
      How close are you to Checkmate in this game we all call "Life?"

      *Best Thread on the Internet ----> Official Everything Dope Shizz Thread

    17. 02-25-2012 06:51 PM #42
      Quote Originally Posted by Exhaust Muncher View Post
      This is the very reason why I dont count FB as a dump. Investors will become the primary focus to achieve and maintain satisfied investors. My question, again, is how does FB plan to innovate from here?
      Ads ads ads. And then more ads.

      I'm not sure if any of you have used their payed add services, but it's damn accurate. If you know your target audience, you can create an add campaign and target very very specific age groups, interest group, male/female, religious groups, etc.

      it's very effective. I got 100$ free FB add money from godaddy when I got a server, and ran a phony sweepstakes to see how many hits I'd get. And within 2 days, I got all the clicks I was expecting.

      It gets expensive if you want your ads to run during peak hours, top of page, etc..

    18. Moderator Harv's Avatar
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      03-04-2012 08:02 PM #43
      It's all about the AD's for Facebook.

      http://searchenginewatch.com/article...-Page-Insights

      Their mobile pages have been ad free, but not for long.

      The question is will users simply live with it? Or will they say they've had enough when their page is half full of AD's.

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      03-18-2012 10:58 AM #44
      Quote Originally Posted by Harv View Post
      It's all about the AD's for Facebook.

      http://searchenginewatch.com/article...-Page-Insights

      Their mobile pages have been ad free, but not for long.

      The question is will users simply live with it? Or will they say they've had enough when their page is half full of AD's.
      This will ultimately depend of the layout of their ads. At the moment, they arent annoying because I personally dont even pay attention to them. Marketing isnt something FB will throw by the side and ignore. They will definitely create some strategic marketing approaches. Even now with the best of the best wanting to be apart of this giant. I remember when I was younger and used MySpace, their ads were attrotious and annoying.. If FB gets to that point, yes, their user base will fall. Also, I would like to see the accurate user base when they release it. I would like to know if that counts as oone user with multiple accounts (I.E- Fan pages, bluff pages, business pages, etc.)
      Last edited by Exhaust Muncher; 03-18-2012 at 11:01 AM.
      How close are you to Checkmate in this game we all call "Life?"

      *Best Thread on the Internet ----> Official Everything Dope Shizz Thread

    20. 03-24-2012 04:38 PM #45
      Anymore news on this front .

    21. 04-20-2012 03:49 PM #46
      I started in the stock market in mid 2011. We had some extra cash that I invested so we bought F, AAPL, and CTIC. Around November of last year I sold AAPL for a profit of $100 a share so we could put that down on the new car we bought and now we have a very manageable car payment. Yes I know we could have made a LOT more on AAPL but this is not what this thread is about. We also sold CTIC as they will likely never get FDA approval for their cancer drug.

      So that leaves us with one stock; Ford. The stock has been good to us. My question is what is the best way to invest long in one stock. Is it as simple as buying shares low? When is the time to get out; when they hit the target? I am in no hurry but I don't want the money to become stagnant.

    22. 04-21-2012 03:13 AM #47
      Have we forgotten 2001 already? Webvan, Pets.com, Friendster, Napster, etc? I don't think Facebook will be around in a couple of years, at least not in its present form. They bought Instagram for a billion dollars, so they can't be very clever businesspeople. It sounds like a ponzi scheme to me where a bunch of hype will get people investing and then left holding the bag when the tide turns and everyone hates Facebook and leaves en masse. I think its already started to wither on the vine, and within a couple of years will be a shell of its former self.

    23. 04-21-2012 03:32 PM #48
      i would have to agree with mr. riot on this one
      one of the problems most don't realize about facebook is that you can never leave it,
      they own everything you post on there, you 'de activate' your account but cannot delete (from what I understand and attempted) someone must know how to get your info off there.

      lots of fine print there that most don't know about..........especially in the 'intelectual property' catagorie.......

      seems the life span of facebook interest is about 3 yrs

    24. Junior Member Exhaust Muncher's Avatar
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      04-22-2012 10:20 AM #49
      Quote Originally Posted by mauslick View Post
      i would have to agree with mr. riot on this one
      one of the problems most don't realize about facebook is that you can never leave it,
      they own everything you post on there, you 'de activate' your account but cannot delete (from what I understand and attempted) someone must know how to get your info off there.

      lots of fine print there that most don't know about..........especially in the 'intelectual property' catagorie.......

      seems the life span of facebook interest is about 3 yrs
      Apparently after a certain time span, If I remember correctly I want to say a month, it'll apparently delete the account. https://www.facebook.com/help/?faq=224562897555674

      However, Facebook is doing what I thought they would do all along. They are trying to buy up other companies that have potential future stability to strengthen and solidify FB as a long term operating company.

      This company wont go away if they play the 8-Ball smart. But as I mentioned in another post, I dont see how they are going to evolve FB into a long term social website. MySpace withered away and now holds only, what seems anyway, young teenagers. Twitter seems to be something that'll be around for a period of time with NEW evolutionizing content. Being new players entering into sports every year and new companies starting, current companies releasing news, etc.

      When I find myself working 50-60 hours in a week, I hardly log into FB, if at all. However, when I have nothing going on, I find myself checking it more often. FB is a luxury of downtime. No other way to put it. With inflation rising, alongside with debt, I see people working more and more to try and keep their finances in check, I see FB being something that eventually fithering out.
      How close are you to Checkmate in this game we all call "Life?"

      *Best Thread on the Internet ----> Official Everything Dope Shizz Thread

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      04-23-2012 01:00 PM #50
      Let's take a look at their business, at it's core it is essentially a marketing company. They are selling advertising space and customer contact info.

      By estimates they will be trading at 100x earnings based on the IPO pricing of $27-36.

      Apple and Microsoft both trades at 11-13x earnings and each post quarter earnings of $25bn+

      Instagram acquisition is simply retarded. It's meant to grab additional traffic to Facebook. Mos folks who use Instagram all have Facebook, Twitter, and Google+ The whole point of using Instagram is to tag photos and link them to your buddies back on FB/Twitter.

      I think Mr. Zuckerberg is just busy printing money as fast as he could to outspend everyone. FB's business plan doesn't look anywhere close to a billion dollar business. He has received a ton of insider money and that's where the main source of income. The advertising revenue will increase but I don't recall anybody I know on Facebook ever bought a service other than reading an ad which I can find on deals sites for free.

      They are not running a search engine, no cloud business, no mobile phone, and no products other than running a website for people that post on just like the vortex on a much larger scale.

      It's a classic ponzi.
      Last edited by Vision33r; 04-23-2012 at 01:03 PM.

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