Oil Prices.

[AIRider]

With Iran stirring the s.hit, I have to start thinking about my exit strategy from a few oil companies I'm trading.

Where do you see it go in next few months?

I know gas is usually more expensive in the summer, but pump prices are not a precise indicator of what is happening with the market.

Some say that Israel is on the brink of sending bombs, others say that it's all a bluff. Who's to trust.

Oil is tricky to trade sometimes, but can be more predictable than gold in my opinion.

What do you guys think?

[Tinker Toy]

I won't speculate if there were parallel situations in 1973 and 1979 but here's some reading. Google found it.

http://www.buyandhold.com/bh/en/educ...2002/arab.html

[mauslick]

iran stirring the sh*t.........you are sure about that?
or mossad carrying out some very specific missions?
in any case somebody wants oil to get expensive

[AIRider]

I won't speculate if there were parallel situations in 1973 and 1979 but here's some reading. Google found it.

http://www.buyandhold.com/bh/en/educ...2002/arab.html

Thanks, good article.

iran stirring the sh*t.........you are sure about that?
or mossad carrying out some very specific missions?
in any case somebody wants oil to get expensive

Everyone's stirring the sh.it, but I'm highly skeptical that their nuclear program is for civilian use only.

But you're right, someone wants oil to be expensive, and I'm wondering how hight are we going to go.

[AZGolf]

Everyone's stirring the sh.it, but I'm highly skeptical that their nuclear program is for civilian use only.

WMD's in the middle east again, huh? As for people wanting oil to get expensive, I'm not so sure. The more that oil prices go up, the more economic it is to use non-oil solutions. I'm not sure Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela, Iran, or any other country who's economy depends on oil exports actually wants the whole world to come up with solutions to get off oil.

[a_riot]

WMD's in the middle east again, huh?

I'm getting deja vu all over again.

[mauslick]

it worked for bush, why not obama.......

if anyone ever looked at a map and noticed where "interests" of the west are positioned they will notice big hole in the middle of 'the influence' and yes that hole would be iran

now start the conspiracy flames

getting off oil dependency...........hahahahahahahahahah

[AIRider]

I found this map quite amusing, however true it is.

Us military bases in the middle east.

[beng]

An argument could be made that this bull market in oil has as much to do with the Fed's loose policy (QE) as it does any geo political concerns.

[AZGolf]

An argument could be made that this bull market in oil has as much to do with the Fed's loose policy (QE) as it does any geo political concerns.

Related to oil prices is also the EUR/USD ratio. If the fed has been loose, the EU is even moreso. In the last year, the ratio has gone from $1.40-1.45 down to $1.30-1.35. I think this summer won't be nearly as bad here as many worry it could be because the dollar is likely to be at least 10% stronger than last year. That should help blunt prices to US consumers a bit, although it means bad things for Europe which is already struggling with recessions in many member countries. Personally I'm hopeful that these are the peak prices, at least in USD. Maybe that's wild, runaway optimism on my part, but it would be nice. If we could shore up our own monetary policy better it would improve the EUR/USD ratio and further help the US economy since we rely so heavily on imports of all things, not just oil.

[pknopp]

An argument could be made that this bull market in oil has as much to do with the Fed's loose policy (QE) as it does any geo political concerns.

A very good arguement at that.

[pio1.8tr]

Finally some positive trend with price of oil. I hope it continues.

[sdpauly]

I found this map quite amusing, however true it is.

Us military bases in the middle east.

Great picture. I have seen this before, and I too cannot attest to its accuracy. But it sure seems probably true... This really helps put the shoe on the other foot for a moment, doesn't it? What if that little country in blue was us, and it is we who are surrounded by hostile military forces? Maybe we would want some kind of weapon to protect ourselves, too? Hmmmm...

[torxim]

Finally some positive trend with price of oil. I hope it continues.

what oil are you talking about having a positive trend right now? We dropped $15/bbl (brent) since mid-march!

[AIRider]

I finally sold my positions for a fraction of profits of what I could have made when I posted this topic. Stupid me. But oh well.

There is a huge surplus now, everybody is stockpiling it. Prices will most likely drop some more.

It wouldn't be a bad time to buy again in the soon future.