Housing Market Dried Up

[jnm2.0t]

We had an offer accepted back in 10/2011 but backed out, at that time we had our pick of houses in our price range. Right now in 6/2012 it's less than slim pickings, you can count the number of houses in our price (that wed consider actually living in) on one hand across about a 20 mile stretch.

It's not that prices have gone up pushing houses out of our range, it's that the overall supply has dried up for several reasons. This article says inventory is down 61% from 4 years back. Our R/E keeps wanting to meet to discuss strategy but I just figure he's bored... what strategy is there when there's nothing to buy?

Is it just here or is it everywhere?

[Vision33r]

RE investors and banks have loaded up on cheap properties and made them into rentals. They're also doing this to prevent the prices from eroding further.

[jnm2.0t]

RE investors and banks have loaded up on cheap properties and made them into rentals.

That doesn't explain it because the houses would be showing up on the market, but that's not even happening really.

[Papa Dras]

It's happening here big time and the people that have nice homes basically can name their price. In my neighborhood, homes have been selling for $50-75k more than they would have this time last year- we are in a neighborhood of $375-550k homes. We actually just had two real estate agents solicit us to see if we had plans to move in order to list our house.

The few friends that we have looking to move are putting it on hold because if they sell their house, which they are almost certain to do, there isn't anything available. It's definitely a seller's market, which is a pretty different story from a few years ago. There is a neighborhood of $800k+ patio homes being built across the street and the lots were half sold in a week.

Fun if you are a seller but crappy if you are a buyer.

[GeoffD]

All real estate markets are local. Conditions in Palo Alto are going to be quite different from other places in the country. If the OP were shopping in Fresno, he'd find a completely different market. In Palo Alto, there are a ton of professional couples who can afford housing that caps at a pretty set price. To avoid a commute from hell, they pay the price. Most places, there aren't that many couples with $300K+ combined income out house shopping. In Silicon Valley, there are jillions of them.

[jnm2.0t]

Its not Palo Alto, it's San Mateo all the way down to Sunnyvale. The houses aren't even coming onto the market, there's about 8 3br under $700k west of El Camino.

You could say its cause the houses prices have risen but they haven't. If that were the case you'd expect to see those $6-700k houses popping up in the $7-800k range, but there's only 5 in that price across the same very wide area.

[SAPJetta]

Even way over here in Nevada it's the same thing. I'd imagine the Bay Area as a whole is looking this way.

A couple years back there were a ton of listings in our area. Now there is hardly anything.

I'd imagine it is a variety of issues.

- Banks sitting on foreclosures and trying not to flood the market. Before, they'd throw anything out there. Now it seems that they will put the ones out there that are in good shape, but the ones that are beat to ****, they are sitting on.

- People that are upside down and don't want to (or can't) take the loss, so they are not looking to sell.

- People that have lost huge amounts of their equity and don't want to sell and don't need to sell. Hope that things swing back up eventually.

I'm sure it varies all over the country, but around here, it is definitely slim pickings.

[Papa Dras]

I agree that it is local, but it is also widespread. Our state as a whole is in a shortage, it just happens to be more noticeable in some of the price ranges.

[mauslick]

yes regional no arguement here. maui has been under false pricing forever, they hold back inventory to keep the prices propped....I imaging it's done everywhere to some extent

but the bankers have fooled us before and are fooling us now and will fool us again,
all smoke and mirrors, they are crafty and very smart

best of luck on whatever you decide

[rich!]

we have a crap ton of listings in FL - not even considering the shadow inventory they hold back. (though i wouldn't touch a bank owned here - as they have fallen into disrepair - which sucks as some new homes are just mold filled)

even as investors are buying up huge lots of homes - rent prices are going up every month down here. which has us tempted to rent out and grab a bigger home.

[FLY-GTI1]

we have a crap ton of listings in FL - not even considering the shadow inventory they hold back. (though i wouldn't touch a bank owned here - as they have fallen into disrepair - which sucks as some new homes are just mold filled)

even as investors are buying up huge lots of homes - rent prices are going up every month down here. which has us tempted to rent out and grab a bigger home.

I bought two in Florida in the past 12 months....going for #3 after my cash out refi (3.25%) closes.

[TT for me]

Housing may be a little dry right now because people who are in loss positions don't want to sell and recognize the loss. It's just stupid human behavior.

[1stRabbit]

Housing may be a little dry right now because people who are in loss positions don't want to sell and recognize the loss. It's just stupid human behavior.

I'm not sure that it's not that they don't want to sell, but it's that they are so upside down it would be hard to:

1) Cash out savings to cover the difference
2) They can swing the payment and are employed so bankruptcy/foreclosure isn't an option
3) added to #2, they are in a recourse state where the bank can come after them for the difference.

I'd like to sell my place now (I'm about $25k upside down), buy some land and put a smaller house on it while lowering my monthly payments. The reality is, I don't want to cash out the estimated difference + closing costs and leave myself with little layoff/emergency funds. I have a well paying job and at the moment am not worried about layoff, but I don't think a bankruptcy attorney or a bank would likely just let me walk on $25k of debt without completely ruining my credit... which i'd need to get a loan for a new place that i'd build.

[GeoffD]

Housing may be a little dry right now because people who are in loss positions don't want to sell and recognize the loss. It's just stupid human behavior.

This is only a small slice of the market. Most people aren't underwater on their homes. Nobody wants to sell in a down market. The only people who are selling are selling because they have to. The usual reasons for liquidating are the 3 D's (death, divorce, debt) or being forced to move for job reasons. Everybody else is staying put.

[Vision33r]

I think most people are down only less than $50k will stay in their home because rent prices aren't better than mortgages currently.

A guy who was working on my home last month said he's paying $1200 for just a single bedroom and that's almost as much as my mortgage for my house and I've got 4 bedroom. A lot of single family homes are now made into rentals because a lot people don't have the money or credit to buy a home.

[titleist1976]

Housing may be a little dry right now because people who are in loss positions don't want to sell and recognize the loss. It's just stupid human behavior.

I'm in the category of, I could dump my house, but then what? Nothing is on the market that we'd want to buy.

My best guess is, and I'm not into conspiracy theories, the shadow market will remain until the elections are over in November. Am I willing to say they will flood the market after November? No. The banks still don't want to take a bath on this stuff. But, it'll at least start to flow again.

And jmn... there just isn't any leftover space in your neck of the woods. And, the unemployment numbers never got nasty out there either.

[Merc-MarkO]

- People that have lost huge amounts of their equity and don't want to sell and don't need to sell. Hope that things swing back up eventually.

That's me. I was advised to hold on to the house in late '08 by a RE agent instead of trying to sell in a bloodbath.

On my 3rd renter in 3yrs; it's quite frankly a pain in the hole. It takes 2 to 3 mos to rent out the house after one tenant moves out and you're on the hook for utilities during that time and the mortgage then the rental agent takes 1/2 the first mos rent when you get a tenant. Getting very tired of this BS.

[GeoffD]

And jmn... there just isn't any leftover space in your neck of the woods. And, the unemployment numbers never got nasty out there either.

California has the highest unemployment rate in the country. Up over 11%. The problem for jmn is he happens to live in a part of the state with a ton of very high wage jobs and an awful commute. If you have a couple who both have Silicon Valley jobs, they could easily be pulling in a combined $350K to $500K. There's a huge amount of competition for a relatively small amount of housing.

[jnm2.0t]

California has the highest unemployment rate in the country. Up over 11%. The problem for jmn is he happens to live in a part of the state with a ton of very high wage jobs and an awful commute. If you have a couple who both have Silicon Valley jobs, they could easily be pulling in a combined $350K to $500K. There's a huge amount of competition for a relatively small amount of housing.

I know you like to think this but it just isnt the case, at least so much that it is causing the problem. Median household income even in Palo Alto doesn't begin to approach the figures you are quoting. The last stats I can find from the census bureau is $120k per household. http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/06/0655282.html

At any rate I'm not looking in Palo Alto and it doesn't explain why 8 months ago I had to pick which houses in a particular part of town to not look at but now I can't even find any across multiple towns to look at.

[Manu44]

The explanation has already been given to you.

People, and banks are holding onto houses because if they do not the market will go even lower than it already is. Andthat is bad for many reasons.

[jnm2.0t]

The explanation has already been given to you.

People, and banks are holding onto houses because if they do not the market will go even lower than it already is. Andthat is bad for many reasons.

Ive never been looking at bank owned properties, specifically excluded them. If people are worried it could go down more and they were even somewhat thinking of selling they would want to now.

[SAPJetta]

Like I said, I think those people are in a state of shell shock at the loss of value in their homes and have just decided to sit on them and hope that the market rebounds one of these days. Good luck getting back to where they were.

3 years ago, there were easily over 200 homes listed in the price range I was looking at in just my home town. Now the same search yields about 60 results, many of which are condos/townhomes rather than single family homes.

The inventory is just super low. That's part of the reason rents are going up and up and up.

[GeoffD]

I know you like to think this but it just isnt the case, at least so much that it is causing the problem. Median household income even in Palo Alto doesn't begin to approach the figures you are quoting. The last stats I can find from the census bureau is $120k per household. http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/06/0655282.html

At any rate I'm not looking in Palo Alto and it doesn't explain why 8 months ago I had to pick which houses in a particular part of town to not look at but now I can't even find any across multiple towns to look at.

There is an enormous difference between median income of people living in a town and people buying into a town. ...particularly in the desirable parts of California where property taxes get locked in when you buy the place. Since the taxes are low, empty nesters and retirees can justify staying in their homes. The median home price in Palo Alto is about 2 million dollars. Around me, that would mean a $30K+ property tax bill. For somebody who has been in their house in California for 30 years, the property tax is chump change.

[jnm2.0t]

There is an enormous difference between median income of people living in a town and people buying into a town. ...particularly in the desirable parts of California where property taxes get locked in when you buy the place. Since the taxes are low, empty nesters and retirees can justify staying in their homes. The median home price in Palo Alto is about 2 million dollars. Around me, that would mean a $30K+ property tax bill. For somebody who has been in their house in California for 30 years, the property tax is chump change.

Fair enough... but that hasn't at all changed from 8 months ago.

[TT for me]

This is only a small slice of the market. Most people aren't underwater on their homes. Nobody wants to sell in a down market. The only people who are selling are selling because they have to. The usual reasons for liquidating are the 3 D's (death, divorce, debt) or being forced to move for job reasons. Everybody else is staying put.

Market isn't going to get better any time soon. Europe is in the dumpster and this country doesn't have the will power to solve its debt problems. Interest rate is as long as it can get and the housing market still sucks. Wait until interest rate goes up - the housing market will go down more.

[SAPJetta]

At least once those rates go up, maybe rates for savings and other investment vehicles will follow suit, at least a little bit.

[Vision33r]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/more-b...184556917.html

[maskedSONY]

I guess some of you guys might like this graphic:

[GeoffD]

An interesting article in the Boston Globe that shows what is being discussed in this thread. This is not a nationwide thing. Real estate markets are local and there are places where inventory is in short supply and market prices are rising.

http://www.boston.com/realestate/new...ell_RE_Article

Here's an excerpt from Movoto's report.

We are seeing a gradual increase in the prices of homes in areas that have been most affected by low inventory. This could be an indicator the housing market has finally pulled out of its slump. We'd like to think so. But we've been burned before. We'll see.

OK, here are the two relevant sets of stats taken from the Movoto report. The first shows declining inventory levels in Boston and other major metro markets across country.

Las Vegas, down 66 percent
San Francisco, down 65 percent
Miami, down 62 percent
Fresno, down 52 percent
Oakland, down 50 percent
Long Beach, down 49 percent
Seattle, down 42 percent
Mesa, down 41 percent
Phoenix, down 41 percent
Portland, down 41 percent
Boston, down 37 percent

The second set of stats, also from Movoto, shows the rise in list prices in these same cities.

Las Vegas, up 52 percent
Phoenix, up 30 percent
Mesa, up 25 percent
Miami, up 23 percent
San Francisco, up 23 percent
Austin, up 22 percent
Oakland, up 17 percent
Seattle, up 14 percent
Fresno, up 13 percent
Long Beach, up 12 percent
Boston, up 11 percent

[jnm2.0t]

So their data is from July to now. The thing is people mostly shop affordability and back into the price. In July 2011 the interest rates were 4.79%, today they are at 3.66%. If you can afford $2k a month in July that gets you $381k of house, today it is $436k of house, 14.4% higher just from rates dropping. It's not a 1:1 but it's a decent benchmark. I would say any amount over this could be contributed to supply issues or local economies, and under this would probably be considered weak.

[Vash350z]

I just bought a brand new house in a small gated community for 190k. About 70% of the neighborhood is built and everytime they start on a new lot it sells within 2 weeks. Houses in the neighborhood range from 150 to 225 and the builder is paying mos of your closing so things are moving!

[a_riot]

I just bought a brand new house in a small gated community for 190k. About 70% of the neighborhood is built and everytime they start on a new lot it sells within 2 weeks. Houses in the neighborhood range from 150 to 225 and the builder is paying mos of your closing so things are moving!

Purchased by owners or speculators?

[FLY-GTI1]

Purchased by owners or speculators?

..or investors.

[firefighterjunkie]

It's happening here big time and the people that have nice homes basically can name their price.

Fun if you are a seller but crappy if you are a buyer.

That's what we've noticed too. We are in a competitive price range (aka don't have a big budget for this area) and trying to find something that we like that is in liveable condition, and at best, is move in ready, is really hard to come by. Most of the market is foreclosures that have been trashed, short sales, or really nice, big places. The new construction (low quality) stuff is flying off the market. We don't have any interest in owning a home on 0.07 acres or it might be tempting

We found a place on Saturday, looked at it and made a full price offer within 24 hours of it being on the market - and we found out that we were offer#4 out of 7! In less than 24 hours! So ridiculous.

We've been sitting on a short sale for 6 weeks and are hoping that will pan out since we can't justify getting into a bidding war over a mediocre property. The house we made the offer on on Saturday ended up selling for much more than asking price.

A guy who was working on my home last month said he's paying $1200 for just a single bedroom and that's almost as much as my mortgage for my house and I've got 4 bedroom.

That's kinda where we are right now. We would give up the house hunt and battle to own if renting wasn't MORE expensive than buying. $1300+ for an outdated 3 bedroom apartment from the 90's just doesn't sit well with me. I guess they can charge high rent because they know people will pay it. Many people are recovering from financial trouble and aren't wanting to buy.

[SAPJetta]

The house we made the offer on on Saturday ended up selling for much more than asking price.

This is good news for those of us who already own. Glad the prices are starting to rebound, if only a little bit. Definitely frustrating for those looking to buy however.