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    Thread: Bob Lutz "All cars will be driverless in 20 years"

    1. 09-27-2012 04:31 PM #26
      I don't think cars will become driverless in the foreseeable future, but I do foresee much more intervention from automated crash protection systems.

      The car won't drive itself, but if the car detects that the driver is about to do something suicidal (or murderous, as the case may be), it will intervene and prevent the action.

      Already seeing the beginnings of this, with lane departure warning systems, "city safety" automatic braking, etc.

    2. Member GeoffD's Avatar
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      09-27-2012 04:32 PM #27
      I can't wait until I can buy this technology.

      I can drink as much as I want at the bar and then have my car drive me home.

      For long drives, I can engage autopilot, and do the things I'd do in my living room.... read a book, watch a movie, surf the internet,

      When I'm old, retired, and suck at driving, I can still live at home and go about my life as usual.

    3. Senior Member Air and water do mix's Avatar
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      09-27-2012 04:33 PM #28
      Quote Originally Posted by Time for a GTI View Post
      Optional driverless? Maybe. Mandatory driverless? In 20 years? Not a chance.
      20 years is forever in silicon chip time. Every 18 months to two years processor speed doubles, until we get to the point that you can't shrink processors any more because of the physical size of circuits compared to resistance. IE, if you shrink it more the processor "leaks" electricity from one circuit to another. 20 years means at least 32 times faster processing than what we have today. At the higher rate it could be nearly 128 times faster.

      Give lawmakers a chance to "save the children" etc. and yeah, every car will have it on there. Will it be mandatory to use it in every situation? Maybe not, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.
      Quote Originally Posted by Boyz in da Park
      Proletariat, Bourgeoise - Everybody smellin' my potpourri...

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      09-27-2012 04:37 PM #29
      Quote Originally Posted by x_GTI_x View Post
      tell thats to the fat british slob who mowed down some dude in a cross walk then kept driving for several miles until a civilian car was able to block her in - yeah we catch some of your news as well.

      when confronted she played the " i didnt hit anyone wot are you talking about" card pretty pathetically.

      simply because she was late for work... but she must have been a cheese-burger eating american with UK tags, right?
      The UK is known as the US of Europe. Just sayin'.

    5. Member GeoffD's Avatar
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      09-27-2012 04:39 PM #30
      So Google can put this in every smart phone with smart phones adding RADAR to supplement GPS and video imaging. Then Apple will release their own version of the feature in IOS 12 rendering all iPhones useless.

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      09-27-2012 04:40 PM #31
      Quote Originally Posted by Galrot View Post
      The UK is known as the US of Europe. Just sayin'.
      Quote Originally Posted by Fritz27 View Post
      No. Smell has a very strong connection in the brain with feelings... or if you're walking past A&F you might think of that chick you fingerblasted when you were 15.

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      09-27-2012 09:22 PM #32
      Quote Originally Posted by tampaSi View Post
      I think it's a good thing Press a button, sit back and get some work done on your morning commute (you can go into work later!) and then when you get to the mountains on the weekend, put it back in full "driver control". I can't wait, personally.
      uh, yea, about that...weight?

    8. Member hardcore4life's Avatar
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      09-27-2012 09:25 PM #33
      I'd take this over stupid self driving car





      You actually meet other people and socialize and they even have dining area where you can have breafast or lunch

      Last edited by hardcore4life; 09-27-2012 at 09:29 PM.

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      09-27-2012 09:48 PM #34
      When I turn 80, I am going to make amazing predictions about the future...
      Because.. I won't be there to have to eat my words.
      “Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime.”

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      09-27-2012 09:48 PM #35
      I love and respect Bob Lutz, and now that I know that he smokes helluv killer dope, I love and respect him all that much more.
      Last edited by DerSpiegel; 09-27-2012 at 09:56 PM.

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      09-27-2012 09:48 PM #36
      I hope so, given all the BS I have to put up with on a motorcycle, driverless cars can't be any worse than what I have to put up with now.

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      09-27-2012 10:21 PM #37
      Quote Originally Posted by Time for a GTI View Post
      Optional driverless? Maybe. Mandatory driverless? In 20 years? Not a chance.
      I'll be 63 in 20 years. No ***king way I'll let some goddamn robot drive me around.


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      09-28-2012 12:11 AM #38
      I saw one of Google's cars driving on the freeway yesterday. It was a Lexus SUV/CUV. And a couple co-workers have seen Google driver-free Priuses on the road lately too.

      There was a 'driver' who, while not driving per se, sure looked like he was paying attention to what was going on.

      And maybe it was my imagination, but a lot of cars were changing lanes in the car's vicinity. Either to a) get a closer look, b) get the **** away from it or c) try to mess with the multitude of sensors.

    14. Swallow Doretti
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      09-28-2012 12:19 AM #39
      Quote Originally Posted by BRealistic View Post
      When I turn 80, I am going to make amazing predictions about the future...
      Because.. I won't be there to have to eat my words.
      He's right, though. And this isn't even accounting for what other affects a globally shrinking car market will have on the sector. It'll be interesting to see how long the French government willingly props up PSA, for example.

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      09-28-2012 12:44 AM #40
      I agree with Lutz if it's part time autonomous. It's already happening in regards to parking. I wouldn't be surprised if that rolls out on all cars, or at least all but the bottom end cars. I could see this rolling on toll roads too. But as far as 100% of all cars for nearly 100% of any commute, I really don't see that happening in 20 years. Not even 50 years. But it might happen in highly dense areas.
      Quote Originally Posted by apizzaparty View Post
      never thought once to use my lefty for the brake. sorry in my opinion it is dumb.

    16. Member venom600's Avatar
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      09-28-2012 01:13 AM #41
      Quote Originally Posted by hardcore4life View Post
      I'd take this over stupid self driving car





      You actually meet other people and socialize and they even have dining area where you can have breafast or lunch


      If all goes well, CA will have high speed rail around the time these cars come into effect.

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      09-28-2012 01:19 AM #42
      I'd rather not have a high speed train stopping at my door step.
      Quote Originally Posted by apizzaparty View Post
      never thought once to use my lefty for the brake. sorry in my opinion it is dumb.

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      09-28-2012 01:37 AM #43
      Quote Originally Posted by Rob View Post
      4) Higher highway speeds - big argument in regards to low speed limits is that people can't handle situations at higher speeds - remove the person and the only reason to not have everyone cruising at 120mph is fuel consumption.
      The sight line limit around curves or over hill tops would be reached on many roads before 120mph.

    19. Member TM87's Avatar
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      09-28-2012 02:37 AM #44
      There would be a lot of benefit from this,espacially on the interstate. Imagine driving 120-150mph and not worry about teenagers on phones, soccermoms yelling at their kids ,boyracers,azzholes hogging the left lane etc etc.
      This will hopefully drop the crash rate, lower the traffic jams and hopefully eliminate deaths from drunk driving etc.
      Will it happen in 20yrs?? Maybe. Think 1992, and technology then and now.
      "Your pants too tight,your wheels too bright"

    20. 09-28-2012 02:48 AM #45
      He's right for a myriad of reasons.

      Fuel economy standards (yes a computer will be better than a human at this)
      The 'inward' flight of the upcoming 'home' owners.
      The ever connected nature of our society.
      Machine Learning is only in its infancy.
      20 years ago, AOL was brand new.

      20 years is a LONG time.
      Quote Originally Posted by Chris Stack View Post
      Makes me proud to be an American in some perverse way. **** your terrorist, I've a honey boo boo outside.

    21. Member hardcore4life's Avatar
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      09-28-2012 08:19 AM #46
      Quote Originally Posted by leaftye View Post
      I'd rather not have a high speed train stopping at my door step.
      Have you ever heard of the thing called " walking" , us Europeans have been doing that in the last 400.000 years

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      09-28-2012 08:23 AM #47
      I think this is a bad idea. I'm never going to trust a computer to drive a car for me.
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    23. Senior Member Air and water do mix's Avatar
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      09-28-2012 08:26 AM #48
      Quote Originally Posted by hardcore4life View Post
      Have you ever heard of the thing called " walking" , we Europeans have been doing that in the last 400.000 years
      That's great if it's practical. Lay a map of Europe over a map of the U.S. and see why it might not be, though. Yes, it is that simple. In the northeast? Perhaps. In California? Probably not, though they apparently are willing to spend billions that they don't have to begin it.
      Quote Originally Posted by Boyz in da Park
      Proletariat, Bourgeoise - Everybody smellin' my potpourri...

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      09-28-2012 08:26 AM #49
      I am for this, I choose safety over I love to drive.

      as long as I can have a track car...

    25. Member Time for a GTI's Avatar
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      09-28-2012 08:38 AM #50
      Quote Originally Posted by Air and water do mix View Post
      20 years is forever in silicon chip time. Every 18 months to two years processor speed doubles, until we get to the point that you can't shrink processors any more because of the physical size of circuits compared to resistance. IE, if you shrink it more the processor "leaks" electricity from one circuit to another. 20 years means at least 32 times faster processing than what we have today. At the higher rate it could be nearly 128 times faster.

      Give lawmakers a chance to "save the children" etc. and yeah, every car will have it on there. Will it be mandatory to use it in every situation? Maybe not, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.
      That's exactly what I meant. I think it's possible that in 20 years every new car will have it as a feature. What I don't believe is that it will be mandatory to use it.
      Scotch. It's time.

      Quote Originally Posted by westsideseal View Post
      I want to start a fundamentalist bakery called "Let he who is without sin snatch the first scone"

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