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    Thread: BEVs are not going to hit critical mass.... change my mind

    1. 06-22-2019 08:08 AM #1
      It seems like people feel widespread BEV adoption is an inevitability.... a singularity we have already passed the event horizon on. But real world indicators don't speak to that. Take pretty much any BEV bull bullet point... there's some real world evidence knocking it down:

      China! - Their overall market is steeply down, and their BEV industry is a bubble about to pop

      https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKCN1SJ0FO
      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...sting-in-china

      Tesla!!! The Tesla accolytes will spin up the excuse centrifuges, but ultimately sales are down and the company remains unprofitable.

      More manufacturers are jumping into the mix!!! And delaying.

      https://www.greencarreports.com/news...duction-delays
      https://insideevs.com/news/348785/re...ul-ev-delayed/
      https://www.electrive.com/2019/01/10...ope-till-2020/

      Global auto market bought 86 million cars in 2018. Of those about 1.7 million were BEVs. If manufacturers are struggling to get the batteries necessary at this level of production, what makes people think it will get any easier at double, triple, 10x that size? It will take an unforeseen miracle in battery tech (and FWIW infrastucture development) for BEVs to get past that inflection point. And even then... there are other issues....

      Am I the only one a little skeptical of this all?

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    3. Member Nealric's Avatar
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      06-22-2019 08:50 AM #2
      Itís really about the cost curve of batteries and charge times. Get battery pricing down such that EVs are cheaper than ICE cars. Get charge times down to 15 minutes (as planned by Porsche with the Taycan), and it will be hard for most buyers to justify an ICE car. That will be the crossover. But I canít tell you when that will happen- my guess is somewhere in the 10 year range. Look how far EVs have come since 2009.

      I think the battery volume struggles will resolve. The issue is there wasnít the manufacturing base to make the batteries. Thatís why Tesla has to build its own battery factory. Other manufacturers are running into supply problems because more factories have to be built. Rare earths are somewhat of a problem, but there are alternative chemistries being worked on that minimize it, and the supply of rare earths isnít the current bottleneck.

      Chinaís EV bubble is mostly a result of overzealous state subsidies and housing stock that causes charging issues- people donít live in single family homes with garages where charging is easy.
      Last edited by Nealric; 06-22-2019 at 08:54 AM.

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      06-22-2019 09:04 AM #3
      Inb4 "But I can't take my 8 kids and tow 4000lbs from bum**** Maine to Peru in it without stopping only twice for 6 minutes each" or some other ridiculous edge case

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      06-22-2019 09:05 AM #4
      Quote Originally Posted by Nealric View Post
      Itís really about the cost curve of batteries and charge times. Get battery pricing down such that EVs are cheaper than ICE cars. Get charge times down to 15 minutes (as planned by Porsche with the Taycan), and it will be hard for most buyers to justify an ICE car. That will be the crossover. But I canít tell you when that will happen- my guess is somewhere in the 10 year range. Look how far EVs have come since 2009.

      I think the battery volume struggles will resolve. The issue is there wasnít the manufacturing base to make the batteries. Thatís why Tesla has to build its own battery factory. Other manufacturers are running into supply problems because more factories have to be built. Rare earths are somewhat of a problem, but there are alternative chemistries being worked on that minimize it, and the supply of rare earths isnít the current bottleneck.

      Chinaís EV bubble is mostly a result of overzealous state subsidies and housing stock that causes charging issues- people donít live in single family homes with garages where charging is easy.
      Pretty much this. The only real question is the timeline. Do you think that in 100 years weíll still be pumping goo out of the ground to drive aroun in ICE cars? I sure donít. What about 50? 20? Sure, 20 years from now we will have mostly ICE cars, but it will be a mix of ICE, battery, hybrid and perhaps some other things tossed in. Fueled cars of one form or another will have a place for quite a while and I wonít see the end of them on public roads (Iím 53) but their numbers will begin to dwindle in my lifetime.

      Why? Because using a finite resource that pollutes is a stupid way to commute if we have better and cheaper alternatives. Oneís definition of ďbetterĒ is what makes some people willing to pay more, but when it becomes cheaper the end is nigh for gassers.
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    6. Senior Member AZGolf's Avatar
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      06-22-2019 10:22 AM #5
      The first "modern" automobile came out in 1884 but they didn't really go mainstream in the traditional sense until the Ford Model T in 1908 and honestly it was more like 1915 when cars were being sold in major volume. That's 31 years from the first modern incarnation of a car until they were dominating in sales.

      The first modern era highway capable EV was the Nissan Leaf, which went on sale in 2010, or 9 years ago. To take a similar amount of time to permit a major shift in buying habits, we're looking at the year 2040 or so. Even comparing back to the past, it's not like horses were gone in 1915, it was more like the post-war era of 1946 and later when cars were at a point where they had truly made everything else obsolete. That's 62 years after 1884.

      Automotive transportation is a huge thing, it's going to take many decades to see massive scale changes unless governments get serious about climate change. Honestly, I'm not sure any do. They sure talk as if it's a big deal, but we saw in France how there were weeks and then months of protests and riots even including fatalities over a very modest gas tax increase. Can you imagine the civil unrest and possible number of governments overthrown if you tried to solve climate change by doubling fuel prices?

      No. We're on a path that cannot be changed. Not in the US, not in Europe, not in China or anywhere. The proletariat will simply overthrow any government that tries to get excessively oppressive in restricting access to fossil fuel vehicles before we're at a point where EVs can do roughly the same thing for a similar cost. I'd optimistically like to think we'll hit an inflection point around 2025 or so when a ton of new global battery capacity is supposed to be fully online but if it's 2035 or 2040+ then that's possible too. That's again just for an inflection point for sales to increase significantly. To actually replace all the fossil fuel vehicles currently on the roads will take many, many decades without a miracle discovery in batteries or heavy-handed global government intervention.

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      06-22-2019 10:52 AM #6
      The best current, relatively attainable ones don't meet my needs given the price. I would definitely entertain the idea of something fun and funky like a $15-20k Honda E as a second car. But we are currently planning a road trip out west and something that takes six stops and an extra eight hours to get to Denver, for example, doesn't quite cut it. The expensive car in my garage can't be the one that can't do road trips. The Corolla can get to Denver in <12 hours with one stop north of Amarillo for gas and lunch.



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      06-22-2019 11:17 AM #7
      20 hours and SIX stops to go 900 miles.....lol. No thanks.

    9. 06-22-2019 12:28 PM #8
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      It will take an unforeseen miracle in battery tech (and FWIW infrastucture development) for BEVs to get past that inflection point.
      This is one of the biggest misconceptions about widespread EV adoption. Non-EV drivers look at the world through gasoline-powered glasses. All their life, their experience has been that, once their fuel level drops below 1/4 tank, they must interrupt their drive and stop by one of the tens of thousands of gas stations around the country. They must spend a few minutes adding gasoline to their car, then they resume their journey to whatever destination.

      Based on that habit, they envision that widespread EV adoption would require us to build tens of thousands of equivalent EV charging stations. In only this way, they presume, would you "refill" your battery--you drive until your charge is low, then divert to the nearest charging station, plug in until the battery is topped off, and then resume your drive to whatever destination.

      This is, of course, completely incorrect. Most EV owners install their own charging station right at home. This is usually done at low cost and is easy to do, because for most home owners the vast majority of the "charging infrastructure" is already there. The power wires that bring electricity from the grid to their home? That's charging infrastructure. The power meter attached to their home? That's charging infrastructure. The circuit breaker panel already in their home? That's charging infrastructure, too. All that's left to do is add on some charging equipment and an EV owner is all set. Earlier this month, I had an electrician add another breaker to my electrical main, then run four feet of wire from it to a new 240v outlet (which he also installed). That's all it took for me to plug in a car charger (which is more accurately known as an EVSE) and now my house is a completely self-contained EV charging station.

      This is where the beauty of owning an EV comes in--you never need to go out of your way to "fill up" your car. Instead, that happens each night while you sleep. Every day, you wake up to a car with a "full tank" that is ready for your daily commute. From my own experience at going one full month and not visiting a gas station at all during that time, I can assure you--you won't miss it.

      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      Yes, anything bad that happens to Tesla is sensational and gets news coverage. But do you wanna know a little secret? Gasoline-powered cars catch on fire, too. They do so more frequently than electric cars, even. However, seeing a gas car catch fire is so common that it generally never makes the news these days (unless it happens during the rush hour commute where it causes a huge traffic jam).

      Quote Originally Posted by Nealric View Post
      Get charge times down to 15 minutes, and it will be hard for most buyers to justify an ICE car.
      I addressed this above. Everyone who has never lived with an EV thinks this is some sort of requirement, but in reality it is not... at least not day-to-day. Fixed charging stations which are equivalent to gas stations would be more like truck stops--only needed along interstate highways and major routes at occasional intervals. Most EV drivers would only need to visit them when driving very long distances in very short periods--ie, during road trips.

      Quote Originally Posted by adrew View Post
      But we are currently planning a road trip out west
      The expensive car in my garage can't be the one that can't do road trips.
      I presume your daily commute does not involve an 800-mile road trip. Think about your typical daily use, for a moment. What distance do you drive on an average workday? Could an EV cover that need? It probably could. What if you drove an EV day-to-day, and then used your second car (or even rented a vehicle) for the one or two times a year you needed to road trip somewhere distant?

      I suggest this because, over the years, I've had customers who wanted to buy a new vehicle and they insisted on a 3-row vehicle despite the fact that they have no kids living at home. I would ask why they insist on three rows of seats. "Well, the grandkids fly out and visit us for one week every summer, and we want to have room for them when they visit." Is that the only time you'll ever use the 3rd row? "Yes." Why not buy a (cheaper) 2-row vehicle instead that suits your needs for 51 weeks of the year, then rent a minivan for that one week the grandkids are here? The money you save on the car purchase will easily pay for the rental, plus you'll save a whole lot more on top of that. "Wow--we never thought of that."

      Just throwing ideas out there....
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    10. Member Galrot's Avatar
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      06-22-2019 12:35 PM #9
      Quote Originally Posted by adrew View Post
      The best current, relatively attainable ones don't meet my needs given the price. I would definitely entertain the idea of something fun and funky like a $15-20k Honda E as a second car. But we are currently planning a road trip out west and something that takes six stops and an extra eight hours to get to Denver, for example, doesn't quite cut it. The expensive car in my garage can't be the one that can't do road trips. The Corolla can get to Denver in <12 hours with one stop north of Amarillo for gas and lunch.
      I'm not really sure what your point is though? Are you saying that driving around 800 miles is common enough for it to be decisive issue for mass-adoption of EVs worldwide? I doubt your average driver world wide have ever driven such a long distance. If that's what you need a car to do, then simply buy something that fits that criteria. But I don't think it is really relevant for the societal trend at large.

      And I can't speak for other, but I find the idea of regularly having to make fuel stops during my commute to be more tiring than the idea of either having to make a couple larger stop while road tripping or just hiring another car.
      Last edited by Galrot; 06-22-2019 at 12:37 PM.

    11. Member Nealric's Avatar
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      06-22-2019 12:42 PM #10
      Charge times are still important for road trips and apartment dwellers. 15 minute standard charge times will drastically increase the universe of people interested in EVs.

    12. Member Galrot's Avatar
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      06-22-2019 12:49 PM #11
      Quote Originally Posted by Nealric View Post
      Charge times are still important for road trips and apartment dwellers. 15 minute standard charge times will drastically increase the universe of people interested in EVs.
      As electric cars become more popular, you will likely see more and more apartments come with charging spots for electric cars. All apartments being built here have charging infrastructure now.

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      06-22-2019 12:58 PM #12
      Quote Originally Posted by Nealric View Post
      Itís really about the cost curve of batteries and charge times. Get battery pricing down such that EVs are cheaper than ICE cars. Get charge times down to 15 minutes (as planned by Porsche with the Taycan), and it will be hard for most buyers to justify an ICE car. That will be the crossover. But I canít tell you when that will happen- my guess is somewhere in the 10 year range. Look how far EVs have come since 2009.

      I think the battery volume struggles will resolve. The issue is there wasnít the manufacturing base to make the batteries. Thatís why Tesla has to build its own battery factory. Other manufacturers are running into supply problems because more factories have to be built. Rare earths are somewhat of a problem, but there are alternative chemistries being worked on that minimize it, and the supply of rare earths isnít the current bottleneck.

      Chinaís EV bubble is mostly a result of overzealous state subsidies and housing stock that causes charging issues- people donít live in single family homes with garages where charging is easy.
      And the third and most important issue to solve - designing a battery that can take that large of a charge current quickly that is safe and reliable. People seem to forget how potent modern day battery tech is. Batteries appear benign to the naked eye but are extremely energy dense and can become unstable. See: even modern smartphones or e-cigarettes when batteries get overcharged, overheated or pierced. Now multiply that by about a jillion.

    14. 06-22-2019 01:03 PM #13
      Quote Originally Posted by adrew View Post
      The best current, relatively attainable ones don't meet my needs given the price. I would definitely entertain the idea of something fun and funky like a $15-20k Honda E as a second car. But we are currently planning a road trip out west and something that takes six stops and an extra eight hours to get to Denver, for example, doesn't quite cut it. The expensive car in my garage can't be the one that can't do road trips. The Corolla can get to Denver in <12 hours with one stop north of Amarillo for gas and lunch.
      WOW - That is quite commute! What? You don't commute 800 miles? Well then how often do you do this drive? Once a week? Once a month? Or just ONCE?

      You do realize that for these once in a blue moon trips, you could make other choices than driving your personal car, right? People think they need to own vehicles to accommodate the edge cases instead of typical usage. And for that reason, they will continue to pay anywhere from 3 to 10 times as much to OPEC simply for the pleasure of burning gasoline for ALL of their usage.

      Until people learn to research the differences with open minds, they will continue to follow the sheep to the Mobil station.
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    15. Member Nealric's Avatar
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      06-22-2019 01:17 PM #14
      Quote Originally Posted by Galrot View Post
      As electric cars become more popular, you will likely see more and more apartments come with charging spots for electric cars. All apartments being built here have charging infrastructure now.
      Sure, but we are a ways away from every apartment having a charge spot for every car.

    16. 06-22-2019 01:18 PM #15
      Quote Originally Posted by Air and water do mix View Post
      Do you think that in 100 years weíll still be pumping goo out of the ground to drive around in ICE cars?
      Mining precious metals isn't any better than pumping goo...

      When our only alternative is mining asteroids, I think pumping a self replenishing goo out of the ground will start to seem pretty cool again.

      If we are capable of controlling the environment (biosphere and climate in total) then technologies like pyrolysis produced bio-char and syn-gas will potentially make more sense.

      If we are capable of utilizing solar power to allow personal hydrogen production from cheap resources (non-potable water, mud, etc), even at low efficiency, then that makes the most sense to me, but I recently heard that solar power is far less powerful than I had thought, and everyone else seems super down to use just as much precious resources on hydrogen as batteries...

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      06-22-2019 01:34 PM #16
      Quote Originally Posted by TurboMinivan View Post

      This is, of course, completely incorrect. Most EV owners install their own charging station right at home. This is usually done at low cost and is easy to do, because for most home owners the vast majority of the "charging infrastructure" is already there. The power wires that bring electricity from the grid to their home? That's charging infrastructure. The power meter attached to their home? That's charging infrastructure. The circuit breaker panel already in their home? That's charging infrastructure, too. All that's left to do is add on some charging equipment and an EV owner is all set. Earlier this month, I had an electrician add another breaker to my electrical main, then run four feet of wire from it to a new 240v outlet (which he also installed). That's all it took for me to plug in a car charger (which is more accurately known as an EVSE) and now my house is a completely self-contained EV charging station.
      I am very pro EV, so nothing I am saying is against the move foward..

      But there ARE major issues in areas with infrastructure that impact how quickly things like home EV charging and solar can progress. My brother is some sort of "project engineer" for an east coast power company, I think he mostly deals with large new projects (big commercial or say a whole sub division) but does have to handle service upgrades in his designated area. There were actually so many solar projects they had to form a new department to handle it, and he was glad to give them up because he was sick of telling people they CANNOT add solar. They don't necessarily deal directly with people wanting to add ev chargers but he does deal with people who need to upgrade their service to handle things like EVs, or even AC and they do have to deny people at times.

      While it is true that most people charge at night which is off peak and that for the avg person commuting and charging on 240 it is only going to be a few hours a night, it isn't just about that individual. It is about the guy next door and across the street and the other 10 houses on the block. They have to plan and they can only upgrade peoples service if the lines going into the block can handle it and the system off the main road can supply that block.. and the next block. If all 10 people on the block try to charge their EV, bake dinner, and have the AC going.. the supply onto the block cannot always handle it.


      Luckily the adoption of EVs is a trickle and not a flood but power companies do need to update the infrastructure all around the country to be able to handle the eventual load. For now some people do need to decide between staying cool and charging their car.



      Quote Originally Posted by Galrot View Post
      As electric cars become more popular, you will likely see more and more apartments come with charging spots for electric cars. All apartments being built here have charging infrastructure now.
      On a bike ride a few weeks ago I dipped down into this new little communal living area on the edge of my town to check out the progress. Basically bunch of houses that are multi unit built around a shared greenspace and a community center so no one has attached parking to their hippy apartment. I didn't realize they were actually building garages/carports so I was curious and expected to find them setup for EV charging.. nope. This is a rich old hippy town of 700 year round residents where the only thing to challenge outbacks on quantity are prii and I need to take my shoes off the count the number of leafs.. they didn't build in EV charging to these parking areas. I was stunned, I think one of the developers is going to be at our planning commission meeting monday and definitely going to ask if they missed it or if I did.

    18. Senior Member AZGolf's Avatar
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      06-22-2019 02:01 PM #17
      Quote Originally Posted by spathotan View Post
      20 hours and SIX stops to go 900 miles.....lol. No thanks.
      900 miles I'm hopping the commuter flight, not driving, yikes.

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      06-22-2019 02:07 PM #18
      Quote Originally Posted by jakeyjohn1 View Post
      I think pumping a self replenishing goo out of the ground ...
      Quote Originally Posted by Turbio! View Post
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    20. 06-22-2019 02:10 PM #19
      I'm out but I'll respond. Lol at renting gas cars to go far, or 15 minute charges being acceptable. I'm almost certain I can fill my Optima's 17 gallon tank in like 5 minutes. 15 minutes is still nuts. If you can't charge at home or work I think it's gonna be unworkable

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      06-22-2019 02:18 PM #20
      Quote Originally Posted by AZGolf View Post
      900 miles I'm hopping the commuter flight, not driving, yikes.
      I used to do 820-50 each way a few times a year. That is 12 hours BOMBING and risking bladder infections with great luck hitting no backs up at all (happened a few times), 14 hours a little more sane/normal. 20 hours in an EV sounds annoying but also not terrible having done that sort of distance dozens of times. However that is approaching a total time on the road that makes sense to extend one of those breaks and get real sleep.


      But the 900 mile rare road trip, even as someone who used to do it often, is really not something that needs to be discussed at this point in regards to EVs being viable or not.



      I actually had put down a deposit on a Leaf while I was doing this regularly and I just simply never considered I would take that car, it made no sense and I had others. 900-1000 miles is my cut off for flying, I love flight I hate TSA/Airports/Airlines.

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      06-22-2019 02:24 PM #21
      Quote Originally Posted by spathotan View Post
      20 hours and SIX stops to go 900 miles.....lol. No thanks.
      And that is with a Tesla which has the best charging infrastructure for long distance travel of any EV on the market. Try that same trip in any other EV and you might not even make it due to broken or non-functional equipment.

      Quote Originally Posted by Galrot View Post
      As electric cars become more popular, you will likely see more and more apartments come with charging spots for electric cars. All apartments being built here have charging infrastructure now.
      You are in Norway. The country subsidizes EVs like crazy.

      These apartments were just completed in my area last year. https://www.charlestonon66.com/amenities.aspx
      The list of amenities even include a Complimentary Self-Service Car Wash and a Dog Park & Wash. But nothing about EV charging. Maybe in Silicon Valley or LA they would build that in to new apartments. But not so much in places outside of CA.




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      06-22-2019 02:24 PM #22
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      I'm out but I'll respond. Lol at renting gas cars to go far,

      1800-2000 miles on your own car is significant. People with leases will rent for trips like that since it is cheaper per mile. People who own cars will do it just to not put the wear and tear on their car. People will do it for business trips to not use their personal car, even though with the right car they can profit


      Why is this suddenly far fetched when it comes to EVs?



      or 15 minute charges being acceptable.
      periodic 15 minute breaks on a 900 mile trip is also good for safety, why do you hate safety?

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      06-22-2019 02:35 PM #23
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      I'm out but I'll respond. Lol at renting gas cars to go far, or 15 minute charges being acceptable. I'm almost certain I can fill my Optima's 17 gallon tank in like 5 minutes. 15 minutes is still nuts. If you can't charge at home or work I think it's gonna be unworkable
      You start a thread with a premise and ask people to offer their thoughts to potentially change your mind. Said people do just that. You respond that your ďoutĒ of the thread you started and double down by saying proposed alternatives havenít convinced you.

      Go back to sticking your head in the sand.

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      06-22-2019 02:38 PM #24
      Quote Originally Posted by chris86vw View Post
      1800-2000 miles on your own car is significant. People with leases will rent for trips like that since it is cheaper per mile. People who own cars will do it just to not put the wear and tear on their car. People will do it for business trips to not use their personal car, even though with the right car they can profit


      Why is this suddenly far fetched when it comes to EVs?

      periodic 15 minute breaks on a 900 mile trip is also good for safety, why do you hate safety?
      I agree that renting an ICE for a long distance trip makes sense if you have an EV for you daily commuting. Especially since many EV buyers lease to start out with anyway.

      As for the 15 minute break. Yes, a break is good on a long trip. But look at the charging times AND the added mileage adrew's maps showed. He went from an 11-1/2 hours, 768 mile trip via ICE to a 19 hour, 920 mile trip with a Tesla Model 3. That just isn't acceptable.

      As for the person who said fly, if he was alone or perhaps with one other person it might be OK. He could get some flights that take 2 hours and cost about $150 per person. Door to door with airport time he would probably need 4+ hours for the flight. But what if he has a family of 4 to 6 people. That starts to add greatly to the costs.


      Quote Originally Posted by adrew View Post




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      '19 Accord EX Hybrid, '16 e-Golf SE, '04 Sequoia SR5, '92 F-250 4X4, '00 GTI 1.8T
      06-22-2019 02:46 PM #25
      Whatís the definition of critical mass? Who says BEVs need to hit 100%, 75% or even 50% to be considered successful? They are ideal for some applications right now. I have one thatís a commuter car. Itís perfect. We wonít take it to visit my in laws 400 miles away, but we wouldnít do that anyway because itís too small. We will take our hybrid that can go 600 miles on 13 gallons of gas though.

      Hey, can I borrow your Optima? I need to pickup a dozen sheets of plywood followed by 2 yards of mulch followed by a ton of gravel. What? Thatís not what itís designed for? Well midsize sedans sounds pretty useless to me. Donít bother trying to tell me I could rent a truck or have those things delivered. If I canít do them in the car I drive every day then itís useless to me.

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