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    Thread: VW Sr VP says "EV price parity tipping point is near" and "EVs are better for you"

    1. Member
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      08-09-2019 11:03 AM #1
      Battery-electric price parity with internal combustion engines will be the tipping point that brings broad market acceptance for the emerging technology -- and that tipping point is closer than it may appear, said Reinhard Fischer, senior vice president for Volkswagen Group who heads strategy for VW brand in North America.

      Fischer told Automotive News Europe sister publication Automotive News at the 2019 CAR Management Briefing Seminars in Michigan that Volkswagen's $50 billion global electric push will bring new scale to EV production, pushing down costs to a point where they reach parity with vehicles powered by internal combustion engines.

      "We strongly believe that the tipping point is near, and that tipping point will be price equity" that will drive new consumers to BEVs, not just early adopters.
      "Once you overcome the fear of something new, the EV is the better choice for you," he said.
      https://europe.autonews.com/automake...ctric-vehicles

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    3. Member Uber Wagon's Avatar
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      08-09-2019 11:10 AM #2
      I agree with the article. I think once battery prices drive down to a point where Federal or Govt incentives may not be needed, we will have a tipping point. I hate to say it, but if we ever hit $5 a gallon on gas in US, consumer mindset will be shifting in a big way. But I really think battery prices will come down before high gas prices become a reality.
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      08-09-2019 11:13 AM #3
      Quote Originally Posted by Uber Wagon View Post
      I agree with the article. I think once battery prices drive down to a point where Federal or Govt incentives may not be needed, we will have a tipping point. I hate to say it, but if we ever hit $5 a gallon on gas, consumer mindset will be shifting in a big way. But I don't want that drastic of a change either.
      I think VW and Ford's partnership on EV will drive growth in battery production. That will lower battery costs.
      Ford, all by its MF-ing self, with the electric F150, will drastically lower battery prices.

    5. Member Uber Wagon's Avatar
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      08-09-2019 11:14 AM #4
      Quote Originally Posted by whitejeep1989 View Post
      I think VW and Ford's partnership on EV will drive growth in battery production. That will lower battery costs.
      Ford, all by its MF-ing self, with the electric F150, will drastically lower battery prices.
      Yep. VW has to push boundaries of battery development after the Dieselgate (gulp). Another tipping point for Ford would be the launch of their Electric F-150, their most popular vehicle.
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    6. Senior Member 6cylVWguy's Avatar
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      08-09-2019 11:30 AM #5
      That's great that cost is coming down, but it's also only one barrier that needs to be overcome. I kind of wonder when we'll be seeing this parity taking place? From the affordable car perspective, the EV Kona starts at what, $15k more than where the gas Kona starts (including AWD)? So companies like hyundai are going to suddenly drop their price to be equivalent to a more basic gas-powered version? I don't see it. BEVs will hold a premium cost for years. They may decrease relative to gas counterparts, but it will be a SLOOOOOWWWWW decline. As the volume of cars sold starts to decline, companies will look at every possible way to maintain profits and increase margins.

    7. Member Maximum_Download's Avatar
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      08-09-2019 11:36 AM #6
      Quote Originally Posted by Uber Wagon View Post
      I agree with the article. I think once battery prices drive down to a point where Federal or Govt incentives may not be needed, we will have a tipping point. I hate to say it, but if we ever hit $5 a gallon on gas in US, consumer mindset will be shifting in a big way. But I really think battery prices will come down before high gas prices become a reality.
      There are so many real world advantages to EVs, I can all but guarantee price (and recharge time/infrastructure) is the only real thing stopping us from mass adoption.

      Think about it:

      1. Commoditized power (no "it has a Ferrari engine in it" or "it's a VW engine" discussion...everything uses the same basic power building blocks from suppliers)
      2. EV performance advantages (we're already seeing hybridization in supercars and sports cars, and I have yet to meet someone who has driven a Tesla NOT rave about it)
      3. EV performance advantages 2 (the ability to route power electrically using software instead of mechanical LSDs/All wheel drive systems, reduced complexity)
      4. Easier servicing (much reduced moving parts, no oil changes, easier on brakes)
      5. Home refueling (most people can use the car with ONLY recharging in their garages at night)
      6. Ease of use/driving (regen braking allowing for 1 pedal operation)
      7. EV architecture allowing for exciting new vehicle design

      I can see a whole slew of reasons why EVs will very quickly become mainstream.
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    8. 08-09-2019 11:43 AM #7
      Quote Originally Posted by Uber Wagon View Post
      I hate to say it, but if we ever hit $5 a gallon on gas in US, consumer mindset will be shifting in a big way.
      Why wait for $5 gas to begin saving money? Thanks to judicious use of public charging, now that I DD my Leaf my out-of-pocket fuel costs have dropped 99% compared to when I was driving my Suburban and Grand Prix every day. But even if I did all my charging at home, my fuel costs would still have dropped by about 90%. That is a drastic difference.

      Quote Originally Posted by 6cylVWguy View Post
      As the volume of cars sold starts to decline, companies will look at every possible way to maintain profits and increase margins.
      SSHHH!!! Don't use the p-word when Nissan and Mazda might be listening!
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    9. Member Tommietank's Avatar
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      08-09-2019 11:49 AM #8
      Quote Originally Posted by TurboMinivan View Post
      Why wait for $5 gas to begin saving money? Thanks to judicious use of public charging, now that I DD my Leaf my out-of-pocket fuel costs have dropped 99% compared to when I was driving my Suburban and Grand Prix every day. But even if I did all my charging at home, my fuel costs would still have dropped by about 90%. That is a drastic difference.
      ^ This. Wife and I both went EV, fuel costs dropped $300 a month. Granted I took those savings and spent it on something that does 0-60 in 3.2 but thats another matter. But I agree, more people will take a second look if gas hits $5.
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    10. 08-09-2019 12:13 PM #9
      "Once you overcome the fear of something new, the EV is the better choice for you," he said.
      Except new isn't always better, fact is at this time in most of the developed world EVs are not the better choice for the consumer.

    11. Senior Member AZGolf's Avatar
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      08-09-2019 12:14 PM #10
      Quote Originally Posted by Maximum_Download View Post
      There are so many real world advantages to EVs, I can all but guarantee price (and recharge time/infrastructure) is the only real thing stopping us from mass adoption.
      Agreed, although it could be 5-10 years before full EVs are cost competitive with cheap cars like the Civic & Corolla. One of the other major areas that EVs have even in very cheap form is NVH advantages. That doesn't apply so much for luxury cars and such, but most people who buy cheap cars are used to engine noise and vibration which often results in a lot of rattling and such. With less noise and vibration, you're less likely to have as many random rattles in the car too. Again, mainly a cheap car thing, but if we're talking about mass adoption, I think the advantages are even greater for cheap cars than they are for the high end cars. Even things like shift quality go away when you start talking about EVs, as there is no shifting. So somebody coming from a 7 year old economy car with a herky-jerky automatic trans going into a perfectly smooth EV will soon come to disdain anything lesser.

      Cost is absolutely the thing holding EVs back. Their advantages are real at the high end but are most pronounced at the low end. I think once the economics and volume production of batteries can handle 10+ million units a year the adoption will be very rapid.

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      08-09-2019 12:20 PM #11
      Quote Originally Posted by TurboMinivan View Post
      Why wait for $5 gas to begin saving money? Thanks to judicious use of public charging, now that I DD my Leaf my out-of-pocket fuel costs have dropped 99% compared to when I was driving my Suburban and Grand Prix every day. But even if I did all my charging at home, my fuel costs would still have dropped by about 90%. That is a drastic difference.
      It's a drastic difference in percent, but not necessarily in cost. Because of my commute, I only need to fill my Jeep up about every 3 weeks for about $50, so my fuel costs are essentially $60. A 90% difference is $54...meh.
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      08-09-2019 12:55 PM #12
      Quote Originally Posted by Maximum_Download View Post
      There are so many real world advantages to EVs, I can all but guarantee price (and recharge time/infrastructure) is the only real thing stopping us from mass adoption.

      Think about it:

      1. Commoditized power (no "it has a Ferrari engine in it" or "it's a VW engine" discussion...everything uses the same basic power building blocks from suppliers)
      2. EV performance advantages (we're already seeing hybridization in supercars and sports cars, and I have yet to meet someone who has driven a Tesla NOT rave about it)
      3. EV performance advantages 2 (the ability to route power electrically using software instead of mechanical LSDs/All wheel drive systems, reduced complexity)
      4. Easier servicing (much reduced moving parts, no oil changes, easier on brakes)
      5. Home refueling (most people can use the car with ONLY recharging in their garages at night)
      6. Ease of use/driving (regen braking allowing for 1 pedal operation)
      7. EV architecture allowing for exciting new vehicle design

      I can see a whole slew of reasons why EVs will very quickly become mainstream.
      Yup and to add to your #7 - EV means we don't have to be stuck with FWD vehicles anymore since the e-motors can easily be placed in RWD and/or AWD configurations - and the AWD cars as well are not going to be front heavy with an engine and diff up front. Finally freedom from FWD for the normal enthusiast.

      EVs are like digital watches, and ICE is like swiss movement. Just a matter of battery development. I believe battery costs have dropped something like 85% over the past decade and are expected to drop another 30% in the new few years.

    14. Member Maximum_Download's Avatar
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      08-09-2019 12:57 PM #13
      Quote Originally Posted by AC1DD View Post
      Except new isn't always better, fact is at this time in most of the developed world EVs are not the better choice for the consumer.
      And at one time when the Model T was new, people were saying that about the Model T.
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      08-09-2019 01:03 PM #14
      Quote Originally Posted by Maximum_Download View Post
      And at one time when the Model T was new, people were saying that about the Model T.
      ...and unleaded gasoline

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      08-09-2019 01:19 PM #15
      I don't know how long it will be before they reach parity, but once it's here the naysayers will look (even more) foolish.

      Sure, it's going to take a while to change the bulk of the fleet, but 20 years from now if you're dailying a gasser you're going to seem antiquated. (And my car will be almost 75, so I'm already there.)
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      08-09-2019 01:20 PM #16
      Quote Originally Posted by TurboMinivan View Post
      Why wait for $5 gas to begin saving money? Thanks to judicious use of public charging, now that I DD my Leaf my out-of-pocket fuel costs have dropped 99% compared to when I was driving my Suburban and Grand Prix every day. But even if I did all my charging at home, my fuel costs would still have dropped by about 90%. That is a drastic difference.
      You would save 90% of your gas costs going from a Suburban to damn near any ICE subcompact though.

      For EV jihadists like yourself I'm sure you'd pay more for the privilege of charging your EV. For many other people though, payback still matters, and charging isn't free. For me in NC, at 15K miles a year the payback on a Leaf vs an Ioniq Hybrid is 6.3 years with free charging I don't have, 25 years if I charge from a 120V outlet, and 33 years if I get a charger installed. Happy to show the math (I didn't even include sales tax or transaction/registration fees). The annual fuel cost savings are only about $160 a year and the Ioniq only costs about $650 to fuel up.

      Hell, in Cali where everything is crazy expensive the paybacks are even WORSE, unless you can get a TOU rate. The difference in average gas vs residential electric nets a fuel cost difference of about $140/year. Only place I've seen crazy fast payback is Colorado, where they have an $8500 tax credit. And of course with these being credits and not rebates you have to have the tax liability to offset them to cash in, which can be a stretch for normal people and state taxes

      And of course fuel isn't the only cost of owning a car... even with the rebates, depreciation is absolutely killer, and even if you keep the car for long eventually you will have to replace the battery, which in the case of your Leaf will eventually total it
      Last edited by CTK; 08-09-2019 at 01:31 PM.

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      08-09-2019 01:28 PM #17
      As for the article, I'm sure the internal slogan for the Eurocrats forcing EVs to be a thing is something like "ELEKTROAUTO MACHT FREI"

      Lol @ this VW exec... consumers are not stupid, and if there is broad resistance against EVs it's probably for good reason. These are the same Eurocrats who pushed for diesel.... "Ooops". Weak payback, inconvenience, new fire dangers... and for me personally, the wasteful use of limited battery capacity to reduce emissions (i.e. a 1 kWh in a regular hybrid is 15-20x more effective at reducing emissions in a BEV, even if the BEV is charged with renewable energy) are big turnoffs

      But there's no convincing a bureaucrat that their grand, politically advantageous idea, or even worse, a BEV evangelist's new religion, might actually be total horse****

      I say this as someone who spent the early majority of his career in green energy and finance

      I think VWAG has realized they cannot change the minds of EU and Chinese regulators, and by extension are going to roll the dice on moving to EVs and rely on propaganda like this to convince people to make the objectionally questionable switch.

      What a shame

    19. Senior Member 6cylVWguy's Avatar
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      08-09-2019 01:39 PM #18
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      Lol @ this VW exec... consumers are not stupid, and if there is broad resistance against EVs it's probably for good reason. These are the same Eurocrats who pushed for diesel.... "Ooops".
      I think it's hilarious that none of the electric zealots can't see through the clearly self advantageous promotion of EVs due directly to dieselgate. They've been indirectly blowing up our TV screens with pro-EV messaging via Electrify America. I'd bet a year's salary that if VW never got caught on emissions cheating with diesel, they'd be beating the same drum as BMW. But they got slaughtered by regulators and now they need to perform their act of contrition. Well, here we are.
      Last edited by 6cylVWguy; 08-09-2019 at 01:56 PM.

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      08-09-2019 01:39 PM #19
      I'm guessing a 48V mild hybrid will be made standard across a company's product line fits that definition? I'd say we'll see that in the next 5-10 years. Maybe Subaru first?

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      08-09-2019 01:40 PM #20
      Quote Originally Posted by Air and water do mix View Post
      I don't know how long it will be before they reach parity, but once it's here the naysayers will look (even more) foolish.
      Is anyone saying EVs aren't coming at all? All I read and hear is that EVs are coming, once they fix a few significant areas, namely A) MUCH more charger infrastructure, and B) the range vs. hours to charge ratio. I think most people either need more range (say, 500 miles that doesn't become 300 in cold weather) or they need a recharge to take more like 15 minutes than 60.

      I don't think any of these are insurmountable, but we aren't there yet.
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      08-09-2019 01:44 PM #21
      VW should follow the lawsuits against Tesla. Then form opinion. Consumers are getting destroyed out by vehicles that promise to save them a few thousand at the pump.

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      08-09-2019 01:47 PM #22
      So... what exactly is newsworthy about this?

      Any new tech becomes more affordable as popularity increases, and economy of scale is achieved. So characterizating the tipping point as “near” depends entirely on what the person being quoted thinks that means. Is near a year from now? Five years, ten years, or just this century? I’d like a slightly more specific idea of what he meant by that.

      Or are there still a large group of people out there that think this was never going to happen?
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      08-09-2019 01:47 PM #23
      Quote Originally Posted by 6cylVWguy View Post
      I think it's hilarious that none of the electric zealots can see through the clearly self advantageous promotion of EVs due directly to dieselgate. They've been indirectly blowing up our TV screens with pro-EV messaging via Electrify America. I'd bet a year's salary that if VW never got caught on emissions cheating with diesel, they'd be beating the same drum as BMW. But they got slaughtered by regulators and now they need to perform their act of contrition. Well, here we are.
      Everyone does know it and has discussed it at length. Nobody brings it up anymore because what's there to discuss? It's like walking around modern day Berlin asking everyone about Hitler. They know, it's a regrettable time in history for them, they've paid their dues, and they've moved on.
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      This forum is more and more of an embarrassment every day...

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      08-09-2019 01:50 PM #24
      Looking at my bro's gadget e-Golf, that guy deserves to be fired if it is his idea of parity.

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      08-09-2019 01:53 PM #25
      Quote Originally Posted by 6cylVWguy View Post
      I think it's hilarious that none of the electric zealots can see through the clearly self advantageous promotion of EVs due directly to dieselgate. They've been indirectly blowing up our TV screens with pro-EV messaging via Electrify America. I'd bet a year's salary that if VW never got caught on emissions cheating with diesel, they'd be beating the same drum as BMW. But they got slaughtered by regulators and now they need to perform their act of contrition. Well, here we are.
      The zealots welcome it. The BEV push has nothing to do with bettering the environment or market choices. It is about forcing their way onto others and using EVs as a means for political gain. The numbers are pretty cut and dry. You have x battery capacity, you want to reduce as much emissions as possible... BEVs are prob among the worst, least efficient ways to do it. Hell, hybrids probably aren't a wise way to use those batteries. Take that battery capacity and tie it to renewable electric generation and completely wean utility customers off fossil fuels for electricity without the worries stemming from nuclear. Have those batteries cycling 24/7, rather than just the few hours a day a car is in use. But we can't even have that discussion, because the BEV future is "inevitable", and anyone who questions it is a Tesla hater

      When you try to sell people **** and tell them it's chocolate you might piss them off. This kind of holier than thou we know what's best for you nonsense is the fuel behind a lot of the anger at govt today

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