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    Thread: VW Sr VP says "EV price parity tipping point is near" and "EVs are better for you"

    1. 08-13-2019 05:26 PM #176
      Quote Originally Posted by whitejeep1989 View Post
      "Fischer told Automotive News Europe sister publication Automotive News at the 2019 CAR Management Briefing Seminars in Michigan that Volkswagen's $50 billion global electric push will bring new scale to EV production, pushing down costs to a point where they reach parity with vehicles powered by internal combustion engines.

      "We strongly believe that the tipping point is near, and that tipping point will be price equity" that will drive new consumers to BEVs, not just early adopters.
      "Once you overcome the fear of something new, the EV is the better choice for you," he said."


      Sure, any company that spends $50 billion will hype it and hope that it works but that in no way is a certainty that it will. People have to want and buy what you have. There were/are plenty of vehicles that had good prices but consumers passed on them. Just because you build it doesn't guarantee they will buy it.


      Much like many EV threads here there's a rush to call the game but in reality VW has the same hill ti climb that they always did and a "hopefull" blurb and from a VP to a European publication isn't a tangible change. It's talk.

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    3. 08-13-2019 05:32 PM #177
      Quote Originally Posted by Burnette View Post


      Much like many EV threads here there's a rush to call the game but in reality VW has the same hill ti climb that they always did and a "hopefull" blurb and from a VP to a European publication isn't a tangible change. It's talk.
      The arrogance is really incredible from these elitists. EU needs to be put out of its misery.

    4. 08-13-2019 05:37 PM #178
      Quote Originally Posted by AC1DD View Post
      The arrogance is really incredible from these elitists. EU needs to be put out of its misery.
      It's a European publication, I didn't get a sense of arrogance or elitism from the article and as far as the EU goes, I don't think we should go off the rails with political rants on a car forum.

    5. Geriatric Member Air and water do mix's Avatar
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      08-13-2019 05:40 PM #179
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      What's easier- installing a charger in your apartment complex to attract tenants with new cars (and therefore likely to have more liquid income), or missing the boat?
      See how this works?

      The world is changing, even if you can't see it/deny it.
      Quote Originally Posted by Boyz in da Park
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      08-13-2019 05:41 PM #180
      Quote Originally Posted by AC1DD View Post
      The arrogance is really incredible from these elitists. EU needs to be put out of its misery.
      Oh you are one of those trolls.
      I will start reporting you now.
      Quote Originally Posted by Turbio! View Post
      Pedantry: winning arguments through exasperation since 1651. An Old World Tradition!
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      08-13-2019 05:44 PM #181
      Quote Originally Posted by NeverEnoughCars View Post
      Oh you are one of those trolls.
      I will start reporting you now.


      Ban GolfStrom!
      Quote Originally Posted by Boyz in da Park
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    8. 08-13-2019 05:58 PM #182
      Quote Originally Posted by NeverEnoughCars View Post
      Oh you are one of those trolls.
      I will start reporting you now.
      How am I a troll for offering up my viewpoint on such an organization? It's basically coercing the public and as you know
      there is NO real accountability in the EU organization to the citizens of nations that live under it. Thank goodness I don't like in a member nation, because I don't want to be told how to live by a bunch of elitists that have no accountability.

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      08-13-2019 06:04 PM #183
      Quote Originally Posted by Tommietank View Post
      What's wild about this statement is that every house has electricity already. It's not like you need a natural gas line to each house to power an EV. Literally, every building in America can install a charger. Sure, maybe you need the HOA to agree, or a longer cord, or a new type of run for each parking spot. But there is literal good electricity to each home. If there is a need, the tech already exists for charging.

      Heck, I cant wait to see until we have wireless charging and it's just built into the parking spaces everywhere.

      Wireless:
      Here's the problem with this. Right now we have a good amount of off peak electricity utilities would love to sell to car chargers (hence the increasing offerings of dirt cheap off peak electricity)

      But if the great EV future you promise is truly an inevitable prophecy, at some point we will have to add more capacity to the electric grids, which is no simple task. NIMBYism kills a lot of needed capacity now.

      And just for some quick maffs.... if all 270 million registered vehicles in the US went BEV got a 6kW L2 charger, if they all charged at the same time that would account for about 30% of current capacity. Then you have to add all the high speed charging you guys are assuring will alleviate all range anxiety. Even if those don't add big demand on powerplants, they will require a ****load of distribution capacity. You put 20 350kW chargers at a gas station it will probably need its own substation. The average house draws like 2-4kW on average for context.

      Can it be done? Sure but it's hardly gonna be the walk in the park you guys are so certain it will be, especially with the current lackluster demand growth

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      08-13-2019 06:25 PM #184
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      Here's the problem with this. Right now we have a good amount of off peak electricity utilities would love to sell to car chargers (hence the increasing offerings of dirt cheap off peak electricity)

      But if the great EV future you promise is truly an inevitable prophecy, at some point we will have to add more capacity to the electric grids, which is no simple task. NIMBYism kills a lot of needed capacity now.

      And just for some quick maffs.... if all 270 million registered vehicles in the US went BEV got a 6kW L2 charger, if they all charged at the same time that would account for about 30% of current capacity. Then you have to add all the high speed charging you guys are assuring will alleviate all range anxiety. Even if those don't add big demand on powerplants, they will require a ****load of distribution capacity. You put 20 350kW chargers at a gas station it will probably need its own substation. The average house draws like 2-4kW on average for context.

      Can it be done? Sure but it's hardly gonna be the walk in the park you guys are so certain it will be, especially with the current lackluster demand growth
      I think we can all agree that we will need new on-peak capacity and transmission resources need to be improved. But dont worry, your local utility is salivating at getting this done. My utility gave me $1500 for buying a new EV. They want you hooked ASAP. And plus, we have plenty of off-peak capacity to get us through the next few million EVs.

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    11. 08-13-2019 06:39 PM #185
      There is a ton of off peak capacity now, it is going to take a long time to replace 270m vehicles (if it ever fully happens in our lifetimes), and there are many ways to address the capacity problem as it comes up. Hell, the last ~10 years in energy efficiency gains and small scale solar (and now solar with battery storage) have made a dent. Considering there is a 10++ year head start, any grid issue in the US is solvable with proper planning.

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      08-13-2019 07:11 PM #186
      Quote Originally Posted by AC1DD View Post
      How am I a troll for offering up my viewpoint on such an organization? It's basically coercing the public and as you know
      there is NO real accountability in the EU organization to the citizens of nations that live under it. Thank goodness I don't like in a member nation, because I don't want to be told how to live by a bunch of elitists that have no accountability.
      Dont worry golfy. You will be banned again soon.
      Quote Originally Posted by Turbio! View Post
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    13. Senior Member AZGolf's Avatar
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      08-13-2019 08:47 PM #187
      Quote Originally Posted by Tommietank View Post
      I think we can all agree that we will need new on-peak capacity and transmission resources need to be improved.
      Would you be surprised to learn that America tripled its electricity consumption from 1950 to 2000 and it hasn't gone up meaningfully since then? We were able to triple capacity over the course of 50 years, so having usage not go up for 20 years means any possible increase is going to be relatively easy to deal with because we haven't had to mess with growth in a long time anyway.



      The bigger problem is California's legal mandate to switch its entire power grid to 100% renewable energy in a couple decades. Good luck, California. They're the ones with the real work cut out for them, especially since they have shut down every nuclear power plant at this point. Unless their plan turns into just buying the majority of their power from across state lines in WA, NV, and AZ, they have a monumental challenge ahead of them that dwarfs anything at all to do with the relatively tiny impact of EVs.

    14. 08-13-2019 08:47 PM #188
      Quote Originally Posted by Air and water do mix View Post
      Ban GolfStrom!
      Awww...crap - I've been hoodwinked!

      So then who is this one?



      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      And just for some quick maffs.... if all 270 million registered vehicles in the US went BEV got a 6kW L2 charger, if they all charged at the same time that would account for about 30% of current capacity
      Now you've completely lost me - What are you even talking about? All 270 million vehicles charging at the same time? Did you even think before you typed that? This would be as likely to happen as every ICE going to the gas station at the same time. Your scenarios don't even fit into edge cases.
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      08-13-2019 10:00 PM #189
      Quote Originally Posted by daSchtick View Post

      Now you've completely lost me - What are you even talking about? All 270 million vehicles charging at the same time? Did you even think before you typed that? This would be as likely to happen as every ICE going to the gas station at the same time. Your scenarios don't even fit into edge cases.
      No, it's not like every ICE going to the gas station at the same time, as vehicles can be charged anywhere- remember?

      All 270 million cars don't have to charge at the same time to load up a plant.... just all the cars in one plant's service territory, which is not infeasible if everyone has home or business charging. It's not like there is 1 central powerplant serving the whole country

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      08-13-2019 11:12 PM #190
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      No, it's not like every ICE going to the gas station at the same time, as vehicles can be charged anywhere- remember?

      All 270 million cars don't have to charge at the same time to load up a plant.... just all the cars in one plant's service territory, which is not infeasible if everyone has home or business charging. It's not like there is 1 central powerplant serving the whole country
      Regional power grids also aren’t served by just one plant. And even 270m cars all plugging in at 5:01pm local time probably aren’t going to tap out capacity since peak industrial demand is usually during business hours. Exception is the impact of summer and residential A/C. Most off-peak rates don’t start till after 7 anyway though, and it doesn’t take much effort to further incentivize charging off-peak.

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      08-13-2019 11:25 PM #191
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      No, it's not like every ICE going to the gas station at the same time, as vehicles can be charged anywhere- remember?

      All 270 million cars don't have to charge at the same time to load up a plant.... just all the cars in one plant's service territory, which is not infeasible if everyone has home or business charging. It's not like there is 1 central powerplant serving the whole country
      Please tell me what time all those cars are going to charge at the same time. The empty highways would be beautiful!!!!

    18. Senior Member AZGolf's Avatar
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      08-14-2019 12:52 AM #192
      To continue on this "What if everybody charges at the same time" line of thought, let's compare it to home appliances. An electric range can draw 4kw when heating. A typical electric water heater will have a pair of 4500w elements for 9kw combined. A 4-ton, 13 SEER A/C unit will typically draw 3.5kw. An electric clothes dryer draws about 3kw.

      So right there is almost 20kw of appliances. While unlikely that every one of them will be running at full all at the same time, I also know of people with big houses and big families where they have multiple washers and dryers so running two washers means it would be drawing hot water while running two dryers and probably running multiple A/C units to cool a 3500 square foot two-story home. Throw in cooking dinner and multiple TVs and stuff all on at the same time and it's not hard to imagine a pretty impressive load from a single suburban family home. Since nearly all of those appliances would be on the 240vac side, even 30kw at 240v would be "only" 125A of draw for a typical 200A panel. Within the realm of what's absolutely possible.

      Now let's look at one of the most common EV chargers - the Clipper Creek HCS-40. It's rated at 32A or a maximum of 7.7kw. It looks like many EVs today don't even support charging at that rate, with some in the 3-6kw range, but even if we say that you have an EV that will max out such a home charger, that's 7.7kw power draw, or roughly equal to a pair of 4-ton A/C units cooling a two-story home, or an A/C unit running at the same time as a clothes dryer and some other miscellaneous things.

      Will EVs have an impact of some kind? Probably, but as was pointed out and seen in the stacked graph above, residential is a relatively small amount of the power grid. Commercial, transportation, and industrial are the heavy users and commercial/industrial in particular tend to see heaviest use between 7am and 6pm, where residential charging will largely fall after 6pm or even after 9pm for plenty of people when even the typical residential usage is falling way off. There's no issues there because the timing is actually about as perfect as it can get.

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      08-14-2019 07:26 AM #193
      Quote Originally Posted by AC1DD View Post
      How am I a troll for offering up my viewpoint on such an organization? It's basically coercing the public and as you know
      there is NO real accountability in the EU organization to the citizens of nations that live under it. Thank goodness I don't like in a member nation, because I don't want to be told how to live by a bunch of elitists that have no accountability.
      "Elitists" is the new buzzword dreamed up by other elitists to scare poor people.

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      08-14-2019 07:31 AM #194
      Quote Originally Posted by Burnette View Post
      "Fischer told Automotive News Europe sister publication Automotive News at the 2019 CAR Management Briefing Seminars in Michigan that Volkswagen's $50 billion global electric push will bring new scale to EV production, pushing down costs to a point where they reach parity with vehicles powered by internal combustion engines.

      "We strongly believe that the tipping point is near, and that tipping point will be price equity" that will drive new consumers to BEVs, not just early adopters.
      "Once you overcome the fear of something new, the EV is the better choice for you," he said."


      Sure, any company that spends $50 billion will hype it and hope that it works but that in no way is a certainty that it will. People have to want and buy what you have. There were/are plenty of vehicles that had good prices but consumers passed on them. Just because you build it doesn't guarantee they will buy it.


      Much like many EV threads here there's a rush to call the game but in reality VW has the same hill ti climb that they always did and a "hopefull" blurb and from a VP to a European publication isn't a tangible change. It's talk.
      I'm not a VW fanboy or anything, but in their defense they have also given very real timetables and expectations for EV 100% adoption/production. They still see the majority of their production being ICE/diesel for the next 20 or so years.
      They aren't saying that "price parity" equals forcing EVs on the public.

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      08-14-2019 07:31 AM #195
      Quote Originally Posted by AZGolf View Post
      Will EVs have an impact of some kind? Probably, but as was pointed out and seen in the stacked graph above, residential is a relatively small amount of the power grid. Commercial, transportation, and industrial are the heavy users and commercial/industrial in particular tend to see heaviest use between 7am and 6pm, where residential charging will largely fall after 6pm or even after 9pm for plenty of people when even the typical residential usage is falling way off. There's no issues there because the timing is actually about as perfect as it can get.
      While I overall agree with what you’re saying, your stacked chart above isn’t total grid use, it’s total energy use. Most of the Transportation section for now is oil. A good chunk of residential and industrial would be natural gas, co-gen, etc.

      Overall your point is right though that industrial is what drives the grid demand.

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      08-14-2019 07:43 AM #196
      Quote Originally Posted by whitejeep1989 View Post
      I'm not a VW fanboy or anything, but in their defense they have also given very real timetables and expectations for EV 100% adoption/production. They still see the majority of their production being ICE/diesel for the next 20 or so years.
      They aren't saying that "price parity" equals forcing EVs on the public.
      They can make all the timetables and expectations they want. Ultimately it all still hinges on whether or not the market goes along with it, which I sincerely don't think will be the case. And VW is in trouble if they are running with unproven assumptions like this:

      "When you put pencil to paper, owning a full-electric vehicle costs about half of what a gas car costs me to operate."
      On what planet? Even in Europe with $10 gas this sounds dubious. Something like a Golf or Polo TDI gets like 40-50 MPG and is dirt cheap to buy. I want to see the paper he put that pencil to

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      08-14-2019 07:44 AM #197
      When the major oil companies start to get involved in recharging and battery technology, it's hard to sit here in this thread and try to deny that EVs are the future.
      These companies have a lot invested in fossil fuels and the fossil fuel infrastructure, and would not casually plan to shift away from their money-maker.

      BP is planning on 5 minute BEV recharging and investing in battery technology to make this a reality.

      https://thedriven.io/2019/07/29/oil-...nutes-by-2021/

      UK oil giant British Petroleum has plans to make charging an electric car as close as possible to refuelling a regular fossil-fuelled vehicle.

      In a recent interview, BP’s head of technology David Eyton said that it wants to provide batteries for electric cars by 2021 that can charge to 100% within just five minutes.

      BP, like fellow oil and petrol majors Shell and Caltex, know that in the very least, they must embrace the shift to electric mobility, and as such are making strategic investments to grab a piece of the growing charging infrastructure market.

      In the electric vehicle playing field, BP has made two investments in the past 12 months or so with which it hopes to position itself: the purchase of UK charging infrastructure provider BP Chargemaster and an investment in an obscure but promising Israeli lithium-ion battery developer called StoreDot.

      The buyout of BP Chargemaster, which currently manages 6,500 charging points across the island nation, is part of a larger goal to remain a main player on the global fuel provider (BP is installing 60kW fast-chargers in China, and 150kW chargers in Germany and the UK).

      However, the funds injection into StoreDot has a related but different goal.

      Speaking with Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Eyton says that BP’s focus for EVs is on how fast people can charge their cars.

      While a 150kW charger can add 100km range to an electric car in five minutes, “Longer-term, we’d like to be able to give you more than 100km in five minutes,” says Eyton.

      “That technology isn’t commercially available yet but we’ve invested in a company called StoreDot in Israel that we think has the best shot at making a new battery that will charge really fast – it’s a modified lithium-ion battery.


      “Today, they are making batteries for phones that allow people to charge phones in a couple of minutes.

      “Our aim is to have a battery in a car by 2021 that can be charged completely in 5 minutes – for a lot more than 100km,” he says.

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      08-14-2019 07:47 AM #198
      1 company <> companies

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      08-14-2019 07:49 AM #199
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      They can make all the timetables and expectations they want. Ultimately it all still hinges on whether or not the market goes along with it, which I sincerely don't think will be the case. And VW is in trouble if they are running with unproven assumptions like this:



      On what planet? Even in Europe with $10 gas this sounds dubious. Something like a Golf or Polo TDI gets like 40-50 MPG and is dirt cheap to buy. I want to see the paper he put that pencil to
      I am trying to find the article where I read the timetable. I don't want to misquote the timeline.

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      08-14-2019 07:52 AM #200
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      1 company <> companies
      BP, like fellow oil and petrol majors Shell and Caltex, know that in the very least, they must embrace the shift to electric mobility, and as such are making strategic investments to grab a piece of the growing charging infrastructure market.
      I suppose that your comment was directed at me, about the BP article?
      You must've missed the line above.

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