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    Thread: GM and VW see no future in hybrids and plans to stop production, while Toyota and Ford marches onward with Hybrids...

    1. Member Uber Wagon's Avatar
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      08-13-2019 05:23 PM #1

      Auto makers for two decades have leaned on hybrid vehicles to help them comply with regulations on fuel consumption and give customers greener options in the showroom. Now, two of the world’s largest car manufacturers say they see no future for hybrids in their U.S. lineups.

      General Motors Co. GM and Volkswagen AG are concentrating their investment on fully electric cars, viewing hybrids—which save fuel by combining a gasoline engine with an electric motor—as only a bridge to meeting tougher tailpipe-emissions requirements, particularly in China and Europe.

      GM plans to launch 20 fully electric vehicles world-wide in the next four years, including plug-in models in the U.S. for the Chevy and Cadillac brands. Volkswagen has committed billions to producing more battery-powered models, including introducing a small plug-in SUV in the U.S. next year and an electric version of its minibus around 2022.

      “If I had a dollar more to invest, would I spend it on a hybrid? Or would I spend it on the answer that we all know is going to happen, and get there faster and better than anybody else?” GM President Mark Reuss said in an interview.

      GM’s view contrasts with other auto-making giants, including Toyota Motor Corp. TM 0.93% and Ford Motor Co. F -0.32% , which are working on full electrics but also expanding their U.S. hybrid offerings. The differing strategies show a division within the auto industry over what is the best path to full electrification, as manufacturers pivot from their more than century-old reliance on gas-powered vehicles.

      Last week, Continental AG, one of the world’s biggest car-parts makers, said it would cut investment in conventional engine parts because of a faster-than-expected fall in demand—yet another sign the industry is accelerating the shift to electric vehicles.

      Toyota, Ford and other car companies have made hybrids a core part of their plans for both the U.S. and overseas markets, seeing them as an interim product for the majority of the car buyers that still drive gasoline vehicles and may not be ready for an all-electric ride.

      Ford, for instance, plans to add hybrid versions of popular models like the F-150 pickup truck and Ford Explorer, in an effort to boost the fuel economy of its fleet in the near-term while continuing to develop fully electric models for farther down the road.


      “We can’t say to the customer ‘You have to take an all-electric vehicle,’” said David Filipe, Ford’s head of powertrain engineering. “We’re going to be aggressively chasing this space of hybrids.”


      Today, auto companies generally lose money on each electric car they sell, mostly because of the high cost of lithium-ion batteries. Concerns about the battery range, along with a lack of places to plug in, also deter buyers from considering electric vehicles. Those factors make going straight to all-electric cars a risky strategy, analysts say.

      While hybrid and all-electric vehicle sales have increased over time, the technology has failed to catch on more broadly.

      Hybrids, which were popularized by Toyota’s Prius last decade as a social statement, accounted for about 3% of U.S. sales in 2018, according to research firm LMC Automotive. Sales of plug-in electric vehicles were around 1% of the total market—mostly thanks to the success of Tesla Inc.’s offerings.
      https://www.wsj.com/articles/gm-volk...es-11565602200

      Last edited by Uber Wagon; 08-13-2019 at 05:34 PM.
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    3. Geriatric Member Air and water do mix's Avatar
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      08-13-2019 05:52 PM #2
      Quote Originally Posted by Uber Wagon View Post
      It's "So long, farewell, Auf Wiedersehen Goodbye."

      What's with these meme generators nowadays? When I was a kid we hand crafted memes of the highest quality from hardwoods and steel. Now? Now it's just this paper and plastic meme crap.



      I think there's a place for the Voltec style car in the lineup, or there will be when gas goes up again. It can't be in a 4-seater sedan thingy though. Honda is the only one with that kind of setup right now, though the Plug-in Prius is getting a lot better in that regard, even if the tech isn't ideally suited for it.
      Quote Originally Posted by Boyz in da Park
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      08-13-2019 06:49 PM #3
      GM and VW are being silly. (It isn't the first time.)

      It's relatively cost effective to build a hybrid powertrain and leverage it across a platform or engine family. As mentioned, Ford's Explorer/future F-150 is a good example. Car companies could also just buy 48V hybrid solutions from an outside supplier, like FCA does with ZF.

      It's not hard to foresee a future where all ICE vehicles have some hybrid component as standard.

      Tom

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      08-13-2019 07:15 PM #4
      A mistake IMO. Until batteries are cheap and plentiful, regular (not plug in or mild) hybrids are the easiest and most effective way to reduce emissions. Every EV is about 30-90 hybrids worth of batteries, but only maybe 2-3 hybrids worth of emissions savings. I think VW & GM could just convert a bunch of regular cars to hybrids without even saying anything, and reduce emissions more effectively.

      But VW is trying to atone for Dieselgate and GM is trying to curry favor with China. It is what it is I guess.

    6. Member kraut_pauer79's Avatar
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      08-14-2019 12:38 AM #5
      well I guess that suits VW well enough, considering they never really committed to hybrids in the first place. At least not on the level of Toyota or GM.
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      08-14-2019 08:13 AM #6
      Quote Originally Posted by CTK View Post
      A mistake IMO. Until batteries are cheap and plentiful, regular (not plug in or mild) hybrids are the easiest and most effective way to reduce emissions. Every EV is about 30-90 hybrids worth of batteries, but only maybe 2-3 hybrids worth of emissions savings. I think VW & GM could just convert a bunch of regular cars to hybrids without even saying anything, and reduce emissions more effectively.

      But VW is trying to atone for Dieselgate and GM is trying to curry favor with China. It is what it is I guess.
      I agree that hybrid is a good bridge between now and "tomorrow", but specifically Prius-like non-plug-in.
      GM, with the Volt, chose a PHEV route. I think for most buyers/owners, if you have to plug the car in, it might as well be 100% BEV.
      I suppose the arrival of the Bolt (vs Volt) confirmed this for GM.

    8. Member r_fostoria's Avatar
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      08-14-2019 08:21 AM #7
      Quote Originally Posted by Air and water do mix View Post
      It's "So long, farewell, Auf Wiedersehen Goodbye."

      What's with these meme generators nowadays? When I was a kid we hand crafted memes of the highest quality from hardwoods and steel. Now? Now it's just this paper and plastic meme crap.
      They even outlawed the plastic memes in some cities, so people are stuck with nothing but the paper ones that just fold in on themselves.

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      08-14-2019 08:36 AM #8
      Quote Originally Posted by whitejeep1989 View Post
      I agree that hybrid is a good bridge between now and "tomorrow", but specifically Prius-like non-plug-in.
      GM, with the Volt, chose a PHEV route. I think for most buyers/owners, if you have to plug the car in, it might as well be 100% BEV.
      I suppose the arrival of the Bolt (vs Volt) confirmed this for GM.
      The Volt was poorly marketed. Maybe I am just clueless, but I did not know it was a PHEV until years after. I think I thought it was a straight up BEV

      But yea if the goal is to reduce emissions, regular hybrids are the clearest path. It seems GM and VW have chosen to placate Tesla obsessed shareholders and power hungry regulators over protecting the environment.

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      08-14-2019 09:01 AM #9
      Quote Originally Posted by r_fostoria View Post
      They even outlawed the plastic memes in some cities, so people are stuck with nothing but the paper ones that just fold in on themselves.
      Lucky bastards. I need to pay 10 cents for every meme I use.

      Tom

    11. Geriatric Member Air and water do mix's Avatar
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      08-14-2019 09:47 AM #10
      Quote Originally Posted by r_fostoria View Post
      They even outlawed the plastic memes in some cities, so people are stuck with nothing but the paper ones that just fold in on themselves.
      But think about how much better that is for the oceans!


      Quote Originally Posted by mutcth View Post
      Lucky bastards. I need to pay 10 cents for every meme I use.

      Tom
      Quote Originally Posted by Boyz in da Park
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    12. Member Mike!'s Avatar
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      08-14-2019 09:54 AM #11
      Quote Originally Posted by Air and water do mix View Post
      It's "So long, farewell, Auf Wiedersehen Goodbye."

      What's with these meme generators nowadays? When I was a kid we hand crafted memes of the highest quality from hardwoods and steel. Now? Now it's just this paper and plastic meme crap.
      Your memory's getting foggy old man. As each kid went upstairs to go to bed they had a solo line, and the phrases were jumbled to rhyme accordingly

      So long, farewell, au revoir, auf wiedersehen
      I'd like to stay and taste my first champagne

      With regards to hybrids, I think Toyota and Ford have the right idea now. In the near (5-10 year) term there's going to be a lot more fuel savings, emissions reduction, and adoption by offering hybrid models at modest premium over base models. PHEV can be offered as a step up, but it and BEVs aren't going to completely take over overnight.

      GM's just got poor product planning and timing. A Volt CUV would be selling great right now, and an Equinox hybrid (full, not mild) would be selling a lot better than the diesel.

    13. Geriatric Member Air and water do mix's Avatar
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      08-14-2019 10:11 AM #12
      Quote Originally Posted by Mike! View Post
      Your memory's getting foggy old man. As each kid went upstairs to go to bed they had a solo line, and the phrases were jumbled to rhyme accordingly
      That was the oldest girl's (Elsa?) solo line and the gif shows the majority of the group singing. I win!

      That said, my memory is getting foggy(er).


      Quote Originally Posted by Mike! View Post
      With regards to hybrids, I think Toyota and Ford have the right idea now. In the near (5-10 year) term there's going to be a lot more fuel savings, emissions reduction, and adoption by offering hybrid models at modest premium over base models. PHEV can be offered as a step up, but it and BEVs aren't going to completely take over overnight.

      GM's just got poor product planning and timing. A Volt CUV would be selling great right now, and an Equinox hybrid (full, not mild) would be selling a lot better than the diesel.
      I can't disagree with the initial bit, but I don't know if a Volt CUV would be selling like gangbusters with gas being cheap. People tend to be very short-sighted.
      Quote Originally Posted by Boyz in da Park
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    14. Member Crispyfritter's Avatar
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      08-14-2019 10:23 AM #13
      I currently own both a Prius and a CMax. The Cmax feels more expensive in almost every way. The powertrain is smoother and quieter, and the 20 mile range of the PHEV is a godsend where I live. I have yet to use any fuel, and so I've currently got a 3/4 tank of fuel that's been in there for a month.

      The Prius V feels cheap, its slow but roomy and the powertrain is harsh and the changeover from electric to gas is way more noticeable and its almost impossible to keep it in EV mode. However, the V is a better hybrid, at least in terms of efficiency. The CMax gets 38 at best on a longer drive where as the V can get 40-42. I'll be interested to see how the Prius does now that the battery pack is up to 100%.

      I say that to make this point: Both Ford and Toyota make good hybrids with very different characteristics. I think it will be a mistake to make all electrics. Especially considering all the fears around infrastructure and range anxiety. The coasts will adopt them quickly. The rest of the U.S. will buy cars that still have ICE's.

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      08-14-2019 10:26 AM #14
      Quote Originally Posted by Air and water do mix View Post
      That was the oldest girl's (Elsa?) solo line and the gif shows the majority of the group singing. I win!

      That said, my memory is getting foggy(er).
      To be honest I think that GIF could be a straight up clip from a DVD rip, subtitles and all. The "adieu, adieu, to you and you and you" kid is going upstairs and the oldest girl's ready to say her solo and go.

      I can't disagree with the initial bit, but I don't know if a Volt CUV would be selling like gangbusters with gas being cheap. People tend to be very short-sighted.
      Maybe not gangbusters but better than the hatch/fastback Volt was doing.



      This is Toyota's July & YTD Hybrid sales (Total Rav4 sales YTD were 240k, so with regards to potential Equinox Hybrid sales, 40k hybrids is 16% of the mix). Hybrid buyers are apparently moving to CUVs as much as non-hybrid buyers have been. Prius Prime is 10k of that 36k Prius number, and I can only imagine how many of those only went Prius because it was the only way at Toyota to get the plug. How many of those 10k would prefer a Rav4h Prime?

    16. Geriatric Member Air and water do mix's Avatar
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      08-14-2019 10:35 AM #15
      Quote Originally Posted by Mike! View Post
      To be honest I think that GIF could be a straight up clip from a DVD rip, subtitles and all. The "adieu, adieu, to you and you and you" kid is going upstairs and the oldest girl's ready to say her solo and go.
      I was never sure if you should spell it y-o-u or y-u-h.



      Quote Originally Posted by Mike! View Post
      Maybe not gangbusters but better than the hatch/fastback Volt was doing.

      *graph

      This is Toyota's July & YTD Hybrid sales (Total Rav4 sales YTD were 240k, so with regards to potential Equinox Hybrid sales, 40k hybrids is 16% of the mix). Hybrid buyers are apparently moving to CUVs as much as non-hybrid buyers have been. Prius Prime is 10k of that 36k Prius number, and I can only imagine how many of those only went Prius because it was the only way at Toyota to get the plug. How many of those 10k would prefer a Rav4h Prime?
      Agreed. I'd love it if my wife had a Rav4h Prime, even though that doesn't (yet) exist. Since they're now on the same platform wouldn't that be fairly easy to build? I wonder if there's enough potential sales there that it'll come out eventually. It certainly seems logical, anyway.
      Quote Originally Posted by Boyz in da Park
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      08-14-2019 11:08 AM #16
      I get what Reuss is saying. Why continue investing R&D $ in what is an intermediary step, when we could double down on extending range and performance of BEV's to get them to where they are a viable option in both cost and range for more prospective buyers (both in North America and other markets).

      Yes, it means they will leave prospective buyers to other makes in the near- and mid-term. But apart from the Volt, GM hasn't gone deep in Hybrids (other than the very mild hybrid systems in things like the Malibu)--so is it really that big of a loss for GM shareholders? I don't think so.

    18. 08-14-2019 02:35 PM #17
      GM and VW hybrids don't hold a candle to Toyotas - they should pass

    19. Member chois's Avatar
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      08-14-2019 02:47 PM #18
      Yeah, I can understand it as a strategy. However, by deciding to focus investment on the newer, less mature tech, their competitors at Ford and Toyota will be able to follow quickly with much lower investment. It is always more difficult to lead in technology.
      At least it seems like GM has figured out that electric drivetrains align with the premium segment better than the mass market segment, and seem to be placing Caddy as their electrification lead brand.
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    20. Geriatric Member Air and water do mix's Avatar
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      08-14-2019 03:14 PM #19
      Quote Originally Posted by GarageBoy View Post
      GM and VW hybrids don't hold a candle to Toyotas - they should pass
      Unless you count the Volt as a hybrid, as some do and some don't, otherwise yeah.

      The Volt is impressive, but was damned by a relatively high price, seating exclusively for 4 and cheap gas. It's brilliant and may still be my next car, albeit used. (I feel as if they're the best deal going in used cars.)
      Quote Originally Posted by Boyz in da Park
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    21. Senior Member AZGolf's Avatar
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      08-14-2019 03:29 PM #20
      I'll say what I've said before, which is that we should let CAFE work this all out. Hybrids raise a company's CAFE score for sure, although EVs raise it significantly more since they tend to have MPGe ratings up over 100. As long as CAFE is pushed another 1-2% a year the automakers get to decide what works best for their fleets. Hybrids, full EVs, engine downsizing, whatever. Just keep the CAFE scores increasing and let the automakers decide for themselves what tech they want to use to meet CAFE.

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      08-14-2019 03:39 PM #21
      Quote Originally Posted by AZGolf View Post
      I'll say what I've said before, which is that we should let CAFE work this all out. Hybrids raise a company's CAFE score for sure, although EVs raise it significantly more since they tend to have MPGe ratings up over 100. As long as CAFE is pushed another 1-2% a year the automakers get to decide what works best for their fleets. Hybrids, full EVs, engine downsizing, whatever. Just keep the CAFE scores increasing and let the automakers decide for themselves what tech they want to use to meet CAFE.
      Agreed, especially considering that CAFE is weighted by sales. Today it seems like it would be better to make regular vehicles hybrids and enjoy the 30-40% fuel economy boost... then continue to develop EV tech and charging infrastructure once that is not enough. If cutting CO2 and emissions is the goal to me that seems the most straightforward path.

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      20 years of German cars led to this: 2016 RAV4 hybrid, 2020 Prius Prime
      08-14-2019 03:58 PM #22
      Quote Originally Posted by Crispyfritter View Post
      I currently own both a Prius and a CMax. The Cmax feels more expensive in almost every way. The powertrain is smoother and quieter, and the 20 mile range of the PHEV is a godsend where I live. I have yet to use any fuel, and so I've currently got a 3/4 tank of fuel that's been in there for a month.

      The Prius V feels cheap, its slow but roomy and the powertrain is harsh and the changeover from electric to gas is way more noticeable and its almost impossible to keep it in EV mode. However, the V is a better hybrid, at least in terms of efficiency. The CMax gets 38 at best on a longer drive where as the V can get 40-42. I'll be interested to see how the Prius does now that the battery pack is up to 100%.

      I say that to make this point: Both Ford and Toyota make good hybrids with very different characteristics. I think it will be a mistake to make all electrics. Especially considering all the fears around infrastructure and range anxiety. The coasts will adopt them quickly. The rest of the U.S. will buy cars that still have ICE's.

      Chris
      Prime owner here.

      It is leaps and bounds better than the 3rd gen. Feels much more premium and it's just such a nice car to drive, which wasn't really the case with the 3rd gen.

      I'm also currently averaging 2352mpg so far on the first tank of fuel. It will get 55-60mpg if you never plug it in. The 4th gen Prius and Prime are a massive upgrade over the previous gen. It's too bad about the looks though, although some bigger wheels helps make them a little less ugly.

      Absolutely love this thing.

      Last edited by Dubveiser; 08-14-2019 at 04:05 PM.

    24. Geriatric Member spockcat's Avatar
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      08-14-2019 04:35 PM #23
      Quote Originally Posted by Crispyfritter View Post
      I currently own both a Prius and a CMax. The Cmax feels more expensive in almost every way. The powertrain is smoother and quieter, and the 20 mile range of the PHEV is a godsend where I live. I have yet to use any fuel, and so I've currently got a 3/4 tank of fuel that's been in there for a month.

      Chris
      In 6 months Ford will have the Escape PHEV on the market with a 30 mile EV range. That should be a further improvement over the Cmax and have slightly more EV range than the current Prius Prime. GM is stupid to forgo hybrids and PHEVs for all BEV models. PHEV is a good solution for people with varied driving requirements or who feel they can't live with EV range/charging requirements.

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      08-14-2019 09:57 PM #24
      The problem with electric cars is the limited range and long charge times. I wish they could work out the bugs with hydrogen cars. It seems like a great idea but lots of cons.
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      08-15-2019 12:09 AM #25
      I can't see the original post because paywall. I thought VW Golf Mk 8 was going to be 48 V hybrid except in USA.

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