In reality, we just don't know. Until there's a vaccine or a proven cure for COVID-19, it's going to be a guessing game.
As a avid and die-hard F1 fan since the late '80s, I want F1 back as much as anyone else. I'm just not buying what seem like overly optimistic statements by F1. I agree with you that 8, maybe 6 races might be possible, maybe. And that's better than nothing if it helps generate some money for the teams, presumably all from TV revenue.