If the economy stays strong and lots of people buy the 4.0 718 then the 981s will drop a good bit more. Sweet spot will be 8-10 years hitting bottom of market like most Porsches.
There big thing that is quickly pushing down the prices is the numbers of the 991's, the 997 GT3's were creeping up and up with the 991.1 only PDK, when they brought back the manual and the GT4 that has pushed prices down considerably over the past two years. Cars that use to sell for close to MSRP at ten years old are now back into the 70's. 997 GT3RS's are down about 20% as many are jumping into new tech.
Same thing happens with Turbos, with the 997tt's now taking more hits as guys sell them to get into 991's with the 992's incoming. 996tt's are creeping up in value but there are still a lot of cars out there that need maintenance done, this is where lots of guys throw in the towel and move on. The same applies to the GT4's, the natural progression for most owners of GT4's is into a GT3. A lot of older 996 GT3 guys jump up to the GT4's or 997's. Around 1000 996 GT3's were made for USA, they still are easy to find and hold around the 45-75k range depending on mile and abuse.
Personal observation is the GT market got way hot in 2015-2018, last year it cooled a bit and will do so more going into an election. There are a lot of Porsches for sale at the moment from lots of people that continue to buy new ones, which is good for many of us that buy used ones to get into the brand. However it has a feeling about it that many are liquidating cars and moving money into other things as the hype is dying down a bit.
Just my $.02
There are some markets already that have the same emissions cars as the US, and the OPF is still included (physically).
The main difference is actually in the surface coating inside of the OPF.
The EU cars have a special coating which scrubs the exhaust, whereas the US cars will not have that coating on the OPF, rendering it inert emissions-wise - but still affecting the exhaust sound the same way.
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The volume of the GT cars for sale really kicked into high gear last year and thus the prices have been dropping. This time in 2019 the 991.2 GT3's were going for 20k over MSRP and people were eating it up, the announcement from Porsche that they are going to keep making manual GT cars could have a lot to do with the price drop and correction. 140k now gets you into a low mile 991.2 GT3 or for ~95-115k 991.1 PDK car, with the 991.1RS in between. Not everyone has a 10 car garage too, something to consider as I know a lot of guys that cycle through cars moving up the rungs every year or two.
The 911 market sell offs normally seem to start 1-2 years prior to a stock market correction/election cycle not to make this political. When the housing market is down top versions like the 911 Turbo/GT3 also take a hit it seems. The pressure of the debt on school loans/car loans, potentially will bring prices down as borrowing money for a purchase of a car will become harder, thus people will lower the price to sell vs holding out for a buyer that takes a loan and throws down cash on the sale.
I always say, buy a car because you want to drive it. If you buy because it wont depreciate, well then the maintenance has not been considered (cough engine out service*, broken strut housing*, pinion bearing wear*). All it takes is a single $5,000-10,000 repair and your investment is moot.
981 GT4's will continue fall most likely for several more years as newer model and tech come out, other pressure will be the number of GT3's out there as a GT4 is not a "911" so many will buy into that. The gear box issue and the strut housing fears will weigh also on the market for a while until more miles are seen on the cars. $50-60k would most likely be the bottom of the market on the GT4's when they are in the 8-12yr age range, as they get cheaper and more disposable they will become more and more into track cars and thus the good ones will be harder to find and will increase in value.
Last edited by TheDeckMan; 02-14-2020 at 01:04 PM.