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    Thread: Hyundai Kia Will Become EV Leaders in 10 Years

    1. Member Tommietank's Avatar
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      02-14-2020 11:20 AM #1
      A Tommietank Opinion Piece:


      I believe the Hyundai Kia sister companies have what it takes to becomes leaders in the EV race. 15 years ago, these companies were almost jokes and little by little they have gained market share not buy disgusting price cutting (Mitsu), but by understanding their target markets and designing to those needs. Everything from econoboxes to now luxury fighters with the Genesis brand, the companies have done well without relying on old boomer brand loyalists. While massive companies like GM have 1 BEV in play, Hyundai Kia have 4. The Kona, Niro, Ioniq, and Soul have all been well received in their respective markets. They have come out with relatively cheap, on-brand, and straightforward EVs which is great to see in a market with polarizing models such as everything Tesla and the BMW i3. Like other OEMs, battery supply remains to be a number one issue holding back production but as those battery factories come online, I believe the Koreans are better positioned than anyone (outside of Tesla) to sell, market, and own a good portion of the EV market. Disagree? Fight me


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    3. Member Lifelong Obsession's Avatar
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      02-14-2020 11:29 AM #2
      I think Rivian will be the EV leader, at least in North America. I'd say Hyundai/Kia will probably be #3; I think Nissan will be #2.

    4. Geriatric Member Air and water do mix's Avatar
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      02-14-2020 12:01 PM #3
      Right now I would surmise that Tesla, GM, VW, and Hyundai/Kia will be the EV leaders in 10 years. As to what order they'll be is just speculation. All three legacy builders are better at actually making cars, but Tesla still has the driveline and battery advantage, never mind the Supercharger network.

      One other possibility is that Tesla does indeed go belly-up and someone (as likely as not it'd be Toyota) buys them up and becomes an instant EV powerhouse. 3 years ago I would've said that was likely, but now? Now it looks as if Tesla has cleared enough hurdles that they may be here for many, many years, and kudos to them for that. They still have a lot of irons in the fire to keep hot, but they've already done the seemingly impossible.

      The outlier possibility is that another startup makes it in the long term, too.
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    5. Senior Member Mike!'s Avatar
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      02-14-2020 12:06 PM #4
      They're trying, I'll give them that. But right now what you get for a $40k SR+ Tesla vs. a ~$35k-40k Hyundai or Kia shows Tesla as the current better choice and even value proposition (except for the $7,500 govt incentive that H/K still get... but won't forever if they become "the leader").

      I can't really speculate right now what two model generations into the future will bring.

    6. Member Tommietank's Avatar
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      02-14-2020 12:09 PM #5
      Quote Originally Posted by Mike! View Post
      They're trying, I'll give them that. But right now what you get for a $40k SR+ Tesla vs. a ~$35k-40k Hyundai or Kia shows Tesla as the current better choice and even value proposition
      100% agreed. It's tough to buy a $35k tiny Kona FWD vs a nice SR+ Model 3. But outside of Tesla, who else is ahead right now? VW has been saying it's gonna release a model for every segment and it's 2020 and still nothing....
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    7. Member Unilateral Phase Detractor's Avatar
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      02-14-2020 12:11 PM #6
      I think more interesting is who will fall by the wayside due to a lack of development.

      I don't know what the heck Toyota is thinking not investing in EVs. They've actually claimed they can "catch up" if EVs take off. That's not how this works. There's a complete lack of realization in Toyota City that *good* EVs are wayyyyyyy more complex to develop than it first appears. Just because you figured out hybrids 20 years ago doesn't mean you're a lock for the future. I see them as the most threatened by disruption because they want certainty in demand before investing.

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      02-14-2020 12:13 PM #7
      Quote Originally Posted by Air and water do mix View Post
      Right now I would surmise that Tesla, GM, VW, and Hyundai/Kia will be the EV leaders in 10 years. As to what order they'll be is just speculation. All three legacy builders are better at actually making cars, but Tesla still has the driveline and battery advantage, never mind the Supercharger network.

      One other possibility is that Tesla does indeed go belly-up and someone (as likely as not it'd be Toyota) buys them up and becomes an instant EV powerhouse. 3 years ago I would've said that was likely, but now? Now it looks as if Tesla has cleared enough hurdles that they may be here for many, many years, and kudos to them for that. They still have a lot of irons in the fire to keep hot, but they've already done the seemingly impossible.

      The outlier possibility is that another startup makes it in the long term, too.
      GM is making all of the right noises, and focusing on building the types of vehicles people want to buy (trucks), with their revised EV efforts.
      The EV Ford F150 will also be a big effin deal. Ford's partnerships with Rivian, VW, and its own efforts will keep them in the game, also.

    9. Senior Member AZGolf's Avatar
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      02-14-2020 12:15 PM #8
      Quote Originally Posted by Lifelong Obsession View Post
      I think Rivian will be the EV leader, at least in North America. I'd say Hyundai/Kia will probably be #3; I think Nissan will be #2.
      Bold prediction, considering Rivian isn't even an automaker yet.

      Quote Originally Posted by Unilateral Phase Detractor View Post
      I think more interesting is who will fall by the wayside due to a lack of development.

      I don't know what the heck Toyota is thinking not investing in EVs. They've actually claimed they can "catch up" if EVs take off. That's not how this works. There's a complete lack of realization in Toyota City that *good* EVs are wayyyyyyy more complex to develop than it first appears. Just because you figured out hybrids 20 years ago doesn't mean you're a lock for the future. I see them as the most threatened by disruption because they want certainty in demand before investing.
      Their plug-in hybrids are 90% of the way there, and honestly same for the fuel cell cars. A fuel cell's complete name is fuel cell electric car. They are at their core, electric cars.

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      02-14-2020 12:18 PM #9
      Quote Originally Posted by Unilateral Phase Detractor View Post
      I think more interesting is who will fall by the wayside due to a lack of development.

      I don't know what the heck Toyota is thinking not investing in EVs. They've actually claimed they can "catch up" if EVs take off. That's not how this works. There's a complete lack of realization in Toyota City that *good* EVs are wayyyyyyy more complex to develop than it first appears. Just because you figured out hybrids 20 years ago doesn't mean you're a lock for the future. I see them as the most threatened by disruption because they want certainty in demand before investing.
      Toyota IS hybrid synergy drive.
      They can't (yet) see past that.
      I don't know if it is a flawed strategy, however.
      So many parts of the world aren't ready for pure BEV, but hybrids don't require new infrastructure.
      Many apartment dwellers, without access to places to plug in, in countries that are BEV friendly, can still benefit from hybrid tech.
      When the above situations do change, Toyota is already extremely knowledgeable about batteries, and can easily switch over to full BEV.

    11. Member Unilateral Phase Detractor's Avatar
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      02-14-2020 12:33 PM #10
      Quote Originally Posted by AZGolf View Post
      Bold prediction, considering Rivian isn't even an automaker yet.


      Their plug-in hybrids are 90% of the way there, and honestly same for the fuel cell cars. A fuel cell's complete name is fuel cell electric car. They are at their core, electric cars.
      I can understand that, but high power lithium ion battery management is a whole field unto itself. Particularly when it comes to the software required to make it all work. Toyota is really good at hardware, but they (like most OEMs) don't have huge software expertise. Sure, Panasonic can sell them the same 2170 cells as others have, but that alone isn't enough. GM went on a software developer hiring binge a few years ago when they figured out what is really needed to compete. https://fortune.com/2015/05/26/gm-tech-workers-hiring/

    12. Senior Member Lwize's Avatar
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      02-14-2020 12:59 PM #11
      Elon will be a homeless drug addict suffering from SpaceX PTSD in ten years.

    13. Member 2 doors's Avatar
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      02-14-2020 01:11 PM #12
      Not a bad notion Tommie. HK has certainly had steady growth in the last 30 years. They’ve taken more steps into the hybrid and BEV arena than a lot of legacy car makers. If they can move their tech into more mainstream shapes (bigger sedans and CUVS), they could really be onto something. I’d love to have a Rivian R1S, but not at $72k. An electric Telluride for $50k? Maybe.

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      02-14-2020 01:13 PM #13
      While not directly EV related, this sums it up of where the company's going

    15. Geriatric Member Air and water do mix's Avatar
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      02-14-2020 01:53 PM #14
      Quote Originally Posted by Unilateral Phase Detractor View Post
      I can understand that, but high power lithium ion battery management is a whole field unto itself. Particularly when it comes to the software required to make it all work. Toyota is really good at hardware, but they (like most OEMs) don't have huge software expertise. Sure, Panasonic can sell them the same 2170 cells as others have, but that alone isn't enough. GM went on a software developer hiring binge a few years ago when they figured out what is really needed to compete. https://fortune.com/2015/05/26/gm-tech-workers-hiring/
      While that's true, they can also go on a hiring binge and pick up battery/software guys and be roughly equal in less that one generation of cars.
      Quote Originally Posted by Boyz in da Park
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      02-14-2020 01:56 PM #15
      Quote Originally Posted by Lwize View Post
      Elon will be a homeless drug addict suffering from SpaceX PTSD in ten years.
      Elon better take care of Grimes' baby first.

    17. Senior Member AZGolf's Avatar
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      02-14-2020 01:58 PM #16
      Quote Originally Posted by Unilateral Phase Detractor View Post
      I can understand that, but high power lithium ion battery management is a whole field unto itself. Particularly when it comes to the software required to make it all work. Toyota is really good at hardware, but they (like most OEMs) don't have huge software expertise. Sure, Panasonic can sell them the same 2170 cells as others have, but that alone isn't enough. GM went on a software developer hiring binge a few years ago when they figured out what is really needed to compete. https://fortune.com/2015/05/26/gm-tech-workers-hiring/
      While Toyota's classic hybrids have all been high power / high cycle rated NiMH cells, all their plug-in cars are lithium ion. In terms of thermal management, it's actually more difficult to manage a plug-in's battery since it's using a larger percentage (C rate) of the battery's abilities in discharge and regen. Furthermore, because they are designed to be fully discharged and recharged every single day, they are cycled way harder than a full EV that might technically only need to be charged once a week for a driver only doing 200-250 miles a week or conversely just charged from 75 to 90% full each day.

      I'm not saying I fully agree with Toyota's decisions but the fact that their FCEVs exist and that their plug-in hybrids use the appropriate lithium chemistry is a big deal. The RAV4 Plug-in will be the most relevant of all since it combines a decent battery size with the power demands of a 300 horsepower powertrain where a huge portion of that power is coming from the battery pack. Again: you make good points and honestly I agree with what you're saying at it's core, but I do think that Toyota's still getting experience where it counts thanks to their plug-in hybrids.

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      02-14-2020 02:00 PM #17
      I think Rivian actually has to start producing and selling vehicles before we can guess at their long term success. I guess I'm an outlier in that I am dubious about EV Pickups taking off big time, whether it be Ford, Lincoln, or Rivian.

      Anecdotally, truck buyers/owners seem like the polar opposite of EV buyers to me. Maybe those big torque and power numbers sway them, but most truck owners I know really wouldn't like not being able to fill up their trucks in minutes on almost any street corner. And a LOT of truck owners put BIG miles on their vehicles. So I'm taking a wait-and-see attitude on that segment, pessimistic as it sounds.

      I agree with the general premise though, HK seems to have leapfrogged Nissan and is taking it to the GM pretty quickly. Can they produce EV's with the hip appeal of Tesla eventually? I don't see why not. I'd personally rather give my EV money to HK with their plethora of dealerships, far higher standards of quality, and safer long term financial position vs Tesla.

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      02-14-2020 02:02 PM #18
      yeah, after tesla, H/K have brought the best EV tech to market at the moment. whether or not they can build on the momentum and close the gap on tesla is another question altogether. I hope they do!

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      02-14-2020 04:36 PM #19
      Quote Originally Posted by Tommietank View Post
      A Tommietank Opinion Piece:


      I believe the Hyundai Kia sister companies have what it takes to becomes leaders in the EV race. 15 years ago, these companies were almost jokes and little by little they have gained market share not buy disgusting price cutting (Mitsu), but by understanding their target markets and designing to those needs. Everything from econoboxes to now luxury fighters with the Genesis brand, the companies have done well without relying on old boomer brand loyalists. While massive companies like GM have 1 BEV in play, Hyundai Kia have 4. The Kona, Niro, Ioniq, and Soul have all been well received in their respective markets. They have come out with relatively cheap, on-brand, and straightforward EVs which is great to see in a market with polarizing models such as everything Tesla and the BMW i3. Like other OEMs, battery supply remains to be a number one issue holding back production but as those battery factories come online, I believe the Koreans are better positioned than anyone (outside of Tesla) to sell, market, and own a good portion of the EV market. Disagree? Fight me
      Nope, I think you are spot on. Hyundai/Kia has proven time and time again to not only be profitable, also compared to some more traditional automakers to be able to turn almost on a dime. Additionally, they seem to shrug off failures and know when to get rid of certain things. Some of these probably cost a lot to develop like the Borrego, but stick with stuff that isn't an immediate success like genesis. I don't see their electrification being any different. Additionally, while they are not always class-leading in Quality they stand by their products and keep their position near the top.

      All the other makers seem to be slowly coming in and testing the waters, where Hyundai and Kia, just go and do it.

    21. 02-14-2020 05:12 PM #20
      I dont see it even theyre prius knockoff hasnt caught on, in mainstream ice vehicles they will continue to grow

    22. Member Galrot's Avatar
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      02-14-2020 05:34 PM #21
      Quote Originally Posted by Unilateral Phase Detractor View Post
      I think more interesting is who will fall by the wayside due to a lack of development.

      I don't know what the heck Toyota is thinking not investing in EVs. They've actually claimed they can "catch up" if EVs take off. That's not how this works. There's a complete lack of realization in Toyota City that *good* EVs are wayyyyyyy more complex to develop than it first appears. Just because you figured out hybrids 20 years ago doesn't mean you're a lock for the future. I see them as the most threatened by disruption because they want certainty in demand before investing.
      I suspect FCA will face some issues. They haven't made any significant investments into EVs and their profit is really dependent on pushing gas guzzlers in the North America market. The new PSA-arm have slightly more EV tech, but even they are slacking.

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      02-14-2020 06:00 PM #22
      That all makes sense, but I'm not convinced there's going to be one singular leader.

      I mean, who is the singular ICE leader right now? I think we can have a consensus it's not, say, FCA...but there's some seriously strong arguments for Ford, Toyota, and VWAG. So many different ways to measure it...I mean, sure VW won volume, but if you just go by that Nissan is actually pretty far up there, and from my viewpoint the only thing I would give them the crown of is epic ex-CEO escapes.

    24. 02-14-2020 06:08 PM #23
      Twenty-five or so years ago, a Ford executive told me in so many words that the only thing that kept him up at night was "the coming of the goddamn Koreans." That was back when Hyundai was basically a joke in the US.

      Here's what's happened in the last fifty years or so:

      https://youtu.be/_A9MEDbqFfk

      https://youtu.be/_A9MEDbqFfk

      The only certainty in manufacturing, is uncertainty. Market forces move with alarming speed, and world events cause unforeseen turns that few if any can predict. If the Syrians start seriously jamming GPS signals that show oil tankers on top of mountains and disrupt crude transport shipping without firing a shot; If Venezuela miraculously returns to normal and revives its oil refining operations; If Trump loses the election and refuses to leave the White House, causing an international panic; If a new discovery makes charging 400-mile automobile batteries a ten-minute inconvenience; If all of a sudden Jason Momoa reveals he loves an Odyssey minivan and every swooning housewife and gay couple decide to rush Honda dealerships to buy one; If a new study finds EMF causes cancer in 92% of EV drivers; Whatever is over the time horizon that we don't expect can create demands for vehicles that vehicle manufacturers may or may not be able to provide quickly enough to profit, much less survive.

      But I wouldn't bet against Hyundai-Kia...

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      02-14-2020 09:53 PM #24
      Quote Originally Posted by Lifelong Obsession View Post
      I think Rivian will be the EV leader, at least in North America. I'd say Hyundai/Kia will probably be #3; I think Nissan will be #2.
      I don't think Nissan will be in business in 10 years.

      I'm also very curious as to what being a leader in EVs will net anybody besides Tesla in 10 years. I think it will still represent a huge cut in volume and reliance on govt subsidies.

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      02-14-2020 10:45 PM #25
      Quote Originally Posted by Lwize View Post
      Elon will be a homeless drug addict suffering from SpaceX PTSD in ten years.
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